STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY OF DUAL-MODE LOGISTICS IN BALI TUNA EXPORTS: AN STL, ARIMA, AND MITSA APPROACH: KERENTANAN STRUKTURAL LOGISTIK DUAL-MODA EKSPOR TUNA BALI: PENDEKATAN STL, ARIMA, DAN MITSA

Charles Paulinus Marulitua Sitanggang; Taryono Taryono; Joko Santoso

doi:10.24319/jtpk.17.338-348

Authors

Charles Paulinus Marulitua Sitanggang Study Program of Agro-Maritime Logistics, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
Taryono Taryono 1) Study Program of Agro-Maritime Logistics, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia; 2) Department of Aquatic Resources Management, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
Joko Santoso 1) Study Program of Agro-Maritime Logistics, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia; 2) Department of Aquatic Product Technology, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24319/jtpk.17.338-348

Keywords:

cold chain, dual-mode logistics, logistics resilience, structural vulnerability, tuna export

Abstract

Bali's tuna export logistics system relies on two modes: belly cargo flights and direct shipping, which are vulnerable to policy disruptions. This study aims to: (1) analyze quantitative changes in PSBB and PPKM policies on the volume and value of Balinese tuna exports; (2) examine the relationship between air logistics capacity and export performance and explain export volume and value divergence; and (3) evaluate the structural recovery capacity of the Balinese tuna export logistics system in the post-pandemic period. Data from October 2016 to June 2023 were analyzed using Seasonal-Trend decomposition Loess (STL), Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Multiple Interrupted Time Series Analysis (MITSA) with Newey-West correction. MITSA confirmed that April 2020 PSBB caused a decline in export value of -USD 7,718,352 (p = 0.0000829***), while July 2021 Emergency PPKM resulted in a divergence: export volume remained relatively stable while export value exhibited a sustained downward trend, indicating economic pressure that was not reflected by export volume. International flight data at I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport confirmed a -99.7% collapse during the PSBB1 phase, with regression showing a strong relationship between flight frequency and export value (r = 0.923; p < 0.001). The disruption of sea transportation was confirmed by Meratus Line's decision to suspend services from Benoa Port (blank sailings) since April 2020. The findings indicate a structural shift in Bali's dual-modal logistics system, from an efficient mode to a defensive mode. Data-driven logistics strategies and national policies are needed to restore competitiveness of Indonesian fisheries exports.

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