Proyeksi Kerawanan Banjir Tahun 2030 dan 2040 Berdasarkan Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Kawasan Jabodetabek
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29244/jli.v18i2.66687Keywords:
CA-Markov, flood vulnerability model, land use and cover change, remote sensingAbstract
Jabodetabek is the largest metropolitan region in Indonesia and one of the most densely populated. High population drives rapid development, leading to continuous land conversion that reduces water infiltration areas and increases flood risk. The severity of flooding in the Jabodetabek region necessitates a thorough analysis of flood events. This study aims to analyze land cover changes that occurred in the years 2000, 2010, and 2020; to develop a predictive land cover model for the years 2030 and 2040; and to project flood vulnerability for 2030 and 2040. This research employs Land Use Cover Change analysis, CA-Markov modeling for prediction land cover 2030-2040, and overlay scoring of flood vulnerability parameters for 2030 and 2040. The LUCC results indicate an increase in built-up areas from 2000 to 2020, reaching 55.17%. The project land use in 2030 and 2040, showing an increase in built-up areas by 33.62% from 2020 to 2030 and 18.39% from 2030 to 2040. The flood vulnerability projection shows that areas classified as high vulnerability dominate, covering 2,425.66 km² in 2030 and increasing to 2,582.24 km² in 2040. This represents a 6.45% increase in high flood vulnerability areas over the decade.
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