Dinamika Spasial Harga Telur Ayam Ras Di Indonesia: Analisis Koefisien Variasi Dan Structural Break
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Price fluctuation is one of many issues in strategic commodities with high consumption levels, such as broiler eggs. A wide range of challenges is faced by the stakeholders to maintain the price stability. This article analyzes the price dynamics of broiler eggs in Indonesia and identify structural breaks in daily price data from January 2020 to November 2024. Price dynamics are analyzed using the coefficient of variation (CV) method while structural breaks use the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The study highlights the different patterns of price variation at four distribution levels-producers, wholesalers, traditional markets, and modern markets-and analyzes the impact of structural breaks on price stability. The results show that modern markets, wholesalers, and producers have low price variations (<10%), reflecting good price stability. In contrast, traditional markets show higher price variations (15%), resulting from local supply and demand dynamics and limited distribution infrastructure. The structural breaks analysis revealed that structural disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, had an impact on price trends and fluctuations in different regions, especially in areas dependent on off-island distribution such as Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. This study provides in-depth insights into the price dynamics of strategic commodities and offers policy recommendations, including increasing production capacity outside Java and Sumatra and strengthening supply chain infrastructure to reduce price volatility. The findings are expected to be an important reference in the formulation of strategic food price stabilization policies in Indonesia.
Article Details
Section
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia (JAI) is an Open Access Journal. The authors who publish the manuscript in this journal agree to the following terms:
Creative Commons License
JAI is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. This permits anyone to copy, redistribute, remix, transmit, and adapt the work provided the original work and source are appropriately cited.
This means:
(1) Under the CC-BY license, authors retain ownership of the copyright for their article, but authors grant others permission to use the content of publications in Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia in whole or in part provided that the original work is properly cited. Users (redistributors) of JAI are required to cite the original source, including the author's name, JAI as the initial source of publication, year of publication, volume number, issue, and Digital Object Identifier (DOI); (2) Authors grant JAI the right of first publication. Although authors remain the copyright owner.
How to Cite
References
Abay KA, Breisinger C, Glauber J, Kurdi S, Laborde D, Siddig K. (2023). The Russia-Ukraine war: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses. Glob Food Sec. 36:100675.
Algieri B, Kornher L, von Braun J. (2024). The Changing Drivers of Food Inflation – Macroeconomics, Inflation, and War. SSRN Electronic Journal.(339).
Amin M, Budiman L, Suhendi D. (2024). Resiliensi penguatan ketahanan pangan daerah di indonesia. Jurnal Perlindungan Masyarakat Bestuur Praesidium. 01(2):63–71.
Arif MZ, Chishti MZ. (2022). Analyzing the Effectiveness of Fiscal Economic Growth: The Role of Institutions Decentralization in. Iranian Economic Review. 26(2):325–341.
Arndt C, Diao X, Dorosh P, Pauw K, Thurlow J. (2023). The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries. Glob Food Sec. 36 March:100680.
Asrin, S., Andita Putri, T., & Utami, A. D. (2022). Transmisi Harga Beras di Indonesia Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia, 10(1), 159–168.
Auliasari K, Qurrotuna F, Orisa M, Nurina N, Mirenty PM. (2025). Analisis Fluktuasi Harga Pangan Antar Provinsi di Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan Data Mining dan Big Data. Digital Transformation Technology. 4(2):1184–1191.
Bareith T, Fertő I, Podruzsik S. (2024). Wheat price dynamics in Hungary: Resilience to shocks. J Agric Food Res. 18, 101511.
Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2022). Impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war on global food security. Towards more sustainable and resilient food systems. Foods, 11(15), 2301.
BPS. (2023). Peternakan dalam angka 2023. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
BPS. (2025). Produksi Telur Ayam Petelur menurut Provinsi (Ton), 2024. Badan Pusat Statistik.
Capitanio F, Rivieccio G, Adinolfi F. (2020). Food price volatility and asymmetries in rural areas of south mediterranean countries: A copula-based garch model. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 17(16):1–14.
Emediegwu LE, Rogna M. (2024). Agricultural commodities’ price transmission from international to local markets in developing countries. Food Policy. 126 July 2022:102652.
Enders W. (2014). Applied Econometric Time Series. 4th Edition. Wiley J, editor. New York.
Fajri MH, Firmansyah, Haroen U. (2024). Price Volatility Analysis of Poultry Proucts at Different Levels of Vertical Markets in Jambi Province. Jurnal Agri Sains. 8(2):244–257.
Food and Agriculture Organization. (2011). The state of food insecurity in the world 2011. How does international price volatility affect domestic economies and food security? FAO.
Firdaus M. (2021). Disparitas harga pangan strategis sebelum dan saat pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia. 10(2):107–120.
Firmansyah, H A, Andayani J, Sulaksana I, Filawati, Fatati, Gusri L. (2023). Comparative Analysis of The Development, Behavior, and Volatility of Chicken Meat Prices in The Largest Traditional Markets in Jambi City. Jurnal Agri Sains. 7(2):222–230.
Hernanto F. (1993). Ilmu Usahatani. Penebar Swadaya, Jakarta.
Ilham N. (2019). Fluktuasi Harga Telur Ayam Ras dan Faktor Penyebabnya. Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian. 17(1):27–38.
Ilham, N., Saptana, S., & Lestari, E. S. (2018). Riviu fluktuasi harga telur dan daging ayam ras di tengah surplus produksi. Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian, Sekretariat Jenderal Kementerian Pertanian.
Ismawati, Harmini, & Suprehatin. (2025). Pengaruh kesadaran kesehatan dan kepedulian lingkungan terhadap niat pembelian telur ayam organik. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia, 13(2), 350–366.
Kementerian Pertanian. (2023a). Analisis komoditas pangan strategis tahun 2023. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian, Kementerian Pertanian.
Kementerian Pertanian. (2023b). Analisis kinerja perdagangan telur ayam. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian, Sekretariat Jenderal Kementerian Pertanian.
Kurniawan, R., Sudarmo, S. T., & Abdurachman, E. (2025). Economic impact analysis of sea toll program implementation in Eastern Indonesia. A review in Papua, Maluku, and East Nusa Tenggara regions. Journal of Law, Politic and Humanities, 5(2). 1008-1017.
Liu Y, Liu S, Ye D, Tang H, Wang F. (2022). Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. 64 October 2021:102790.
Loginova D, Mann S. (2022). Institutional contributions to agricultural producer price stability. Agricultural and Food Economics. 10(1):12.
Mason NM, Jayne TS, Myers RJ. (2015). Smallholder supply response to marketing board activities in a dual channel marketing system: The case of Zambia. J Agric Econ. 66(1):36–65.
Morepje MT, Sithole MZ, Msweli NS, Agholor AI. (2024). The Influence of E-Commerce Platforms on Sustainable Agriculture Practices among Smallholder Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sustainability (Switzerland). 16, 6496.
Mulyana A, Masduki T, Muizu WOZ, Febrianti T, Triski DS. (2024). The Contribution of Off-Takers to Sustainable Agricultural Cluster Businesses. Sustainability (Switzerland). 16(23):1–13.
Nugroho AD, Ma’ruf MI, Nasir MA, Fekete-Farkas M, Lakner Z. (2024). Impact of global trade agreements on agricultural producer prices in Asian countries. Heliyon. 10(2):e24635.
Orkun Oral İ, Çakıcı A, Yıldız F, Alayoubi M. (2023). Determinants of food price in Turkey: A Structural VAR approach. Cogent Food Agric. 9(1).
Parwati, C. I., Sholeh, M., Hidayat, T., & Suraya, S. (2025). Pengenalan Teknologi Tepat Guna Pembuatan Telur Asin LABA di Godean Sleman Melalui Program Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat. Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bhinneka, 4(1), 469-475.
Perron P, Vogelsang TJ. (1992). Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. 10(4):467–470.
Rahayu NNAP, Arisena GMK. (2023). Pendapatan dan Risiko Usaha Peternakan Ayam Petelur (Studi Kasus di Desa Pesedahan, Kecamatan Manggis, Kabupaten Karangasem, Provinsi Bali). Jurnal Ekonomi Prtanian dan Agribisnis (JEPA). 7(4):1286–1298.
Rahmadani SA, Mulyo JH, Nasir MA. (2025). Shallot Production Risk: Case Study in Gunungkidul Region Yogyakarta Province. BIO Web Conf. 158.
Ramli, R. A. (2021). Dampak pandemi COVID 19 terhadap ketepatan waktu membayar peternak ayam petelur kepada pemasok di Kabupaten Pinrang [skripsi]. Makassar: Fakultas Peternakan, Universitas Hasanuddin.
Ratu Reni Budiyanti, Vony Armelia, Magfira, & Akbar Satria Bahari. (2024). Price fluctuations of quail eggs at the farm level and their contributing factors in The Jabodetabek and East Java. Jurnal Agro Veteriner, 8(1), 7–12.
Ridwansyah Matondang M, Krisnamurthi, Bayu, Herawati H. (2024). Price Fluctuations and Volatility of National Strategic Food Commodities In Indonesia. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian. 8(1):134.
Sahara. (2021). COVID 19 pandemic, regional structural break and the volatility of chicken meat prices in Indonesia. Journal of ISSAAS (International Society for Southeast Asian Agricultural Sciences), 27(2), 55–68.
Selmi S, Putra A, Khairunnisa NP, Asriani PS. (2023). Fluctuations and Movement Patterns of Race Chicken Egg Prices in Bengkulu Province. Jurnal Sain Peternakan Indonesia. 18(1):57–63.
Surni, Nendissa DR, Wahib MA, Astuti MH, Arimbawa P, Miar, Maximilian MM, Elbaar EF. (2020). Socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic: Empirical study on the supply of chicken meat in Indonesia. AIMS Agriculture and Food. 6(1):65–81.
Urak F, Bilgic A, Florkowski WJ, Bozma G. (2024). Confluence of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Effects on agricultural commodity prices and food security. Borsa Istanbul Review. 24(3):506–519.
Villacis AH, Kopp T, Mishra AK. (2024). Agricultural marketing channels and market prices: Evidence from high-value crop producers in India. Econ Anal Policy. 81 January:1308–1321.
Walpole RE. (2000). Introduction to Statistic (3rd Edition). Macmillan.
Workie E, Mackolil J, Nyika J, Ramadas S. (2020). Deciphering the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on food security, agriculture, and livelihoods: A review of the evidence from developing countries. Current Research in Environmental Sustainability. 2:100014.
Yu X, Liu C, Wang H, Feil JH. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on food prices in China: evidence of four major food products from Beijing, Shandong and Hubei Provinces. China Agricultural Economic Review. 12(3):445–458.
Yudianto, Y., Supriyadi, D., & Kosasih. (2023). Dampak perselisihan Ukraina–Rusia 2022 terhadap perekonomian, inflasi, perdagangan internasional di Asia Tenggara. Coopetition. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 14(2), 293–306.