Assessing Food Consumption Trends in Indonesia: Historical Insights and Challenges for Adoption of the Desirable Dietary Pattern

Abstract

Rapidly growing population and increasing per capita income are predicted to change the patterns of food consumption in Indonesia. Studies have raised concerns that the conventional diet pattern, which relies heavily on energy-dense food and meat products, tends to increase non-communicable diseases. The conventional diet also generates significant emissions from agricultural activities, which contradicts the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals on responsible consumption and climate action. The Indonesia Food National Agency has stipulated a Desirable Dietary Pattern (Pola Pangan Harapan, PPH), which describes an ideal quality of food consumption with balanced sources of nutrition. Information related to the long-term trends in food consumption is limited, even though it is urgently needed to assess the future food demand trajectory and to inform policy directions needed for PPH. In this study, we assessed historical food consumption trends in relation to income using a panel regression analysis. National socioeconomic surveys of food expenditure and national macroeconomic data were used for analyzing 15 food groups. Food consumption was positively affected by income changes, except for consumption of staple rice, tubers, sugarcane, and nuts. Positive trends with income changes, known as positive income elasticity, were identified, and ranged from 0.19 (animal and vegetable oils) to 1.27 (restaurant and catering). Major adjustments to the current diet to comply with PPH criteria would include diversifying carbohydrate sources, increasing consumption of vegetables and fruits, increasing plant-based foods as a protein source, and reducing consumption of cooking oil and purchased foods. The income elasticity was positive in almost all food groups, which suggests that future consumption levels will rapidly increase beyond the PPH energy sufficiency standard. Therefore, there is an urgent need to focus on policy directions for the PPH agenda and alignment with the national climate policy, to ensure that future consumption is maintained at sustainable and healthy levels.