Dynamic Model of Community-Based Agritourism Development in Batu City

Abstract

Background: At Lumbung Stroberi, agriculture, tourism, and community institutions are already interconnected, but their linkages remain insufficiently strong and continuous. Local strawberry production declined from 14,194.45 quintals in 2024 to 1,601.44 quintals in 2025 (BPS, 2026), contributing to dependence on external strawberry supplies, while limited processing and weaknesses in training, institutional cooperation, community participation, and promotion constrain value creation and agritourism performance.
Purpose: This study aims to analyze the structure and behavior of the agritourism development system and to formulate policy scenarios that optimize system performance across economic, social, and production dimensions.
Design/methodology/approach: A system dynamics approach was employed using a mixed-methods design, combining quantitative data from questionnaires and qualitative insights from interviews. The analysis involved identifying key variables, developing a causal loop diagram, constructing a stock-and-flow model, validating the model, and simulating policy scenarios.
Findings/Results: The results show that Scenario C-High, which integrates upstream and downstream interventions, produces the best outcomes compared with the Business as Usual (BAU) condition and the other scenarios. This scenario increases agritourism revenue to IDR 287,806,000, raises visitor numbers to 8,105, and improves production to 995 kg, with 858 kg classified as salable yield, indicating enhanced efficiency and product quality. Socially, community participation and institutional capacity remain stable and supportive of sustainability.
Conclusion: These findings suggest that an integrated strategy combining production improvement, product quality enhancement, institutional strengthening, and human resource development is the most effective approach for sustainable agritourism development. The model provides a practical tool for policymakers and stakeholders to design adaptive and system-based strategies, although its implementation requires adequate resources, coordination, and infrastructure readiness.
Originality/value (State of the art): This study develops an integrated system dynamics model that simultaneously captures the interactions between agricultural production, tourism performance, and community institutional capacity in community-based agritourism. The study evaluates alternative policy scenarios through dynamic simulation, providing evidence-based recommendations for sustainable community-based agritourism development.

Keywords: agritourism development, community-based tourism, system dynamics, sustainable agriculture, tourism performance