Modeling Thermal Plume Dispersion and Its Relationship with Plankton Community Structure in Lombok Coastal Waters
Abstract
Coastal power plants discharge high-temperature cooling water that forms thermal plumes, potentially imposing thermal stress on marine ecosystems and altering sensitive biological indicators such as plankton. This study aimed to analyze the spatial dispersion of thermal plumes and examine their relationship with plankton community structure in the coastal waters of Lombok. Secondary environmental monitoring data collected in May 2025 were integrated with two-dimensional numerical modeling using MIKE 21 to simulate hydrodynamic circulation and thermal transport. Plankton community structure was evaluated using the Shannon–Wiener diversity, evenness, and Simpson dominance indices, while relationships between environmental variables and plankton metrics were assessed using Spearman rank correlation and correspondence analysis. The simulations indicated that tidal currents, surface winds, and hydrodynamic circulation primarily controlled the spatial distribution of the thermal plume. Under different tidal conditions, the 30.0–30.5 °C temperature class dominated the affected area, covering approximately 62.21–66.06 Km², whereas higher temperature zones remained localized near the discharge outlet. Plankton communities exhibited moderate diversity (H' = 1.93–2.21), high evenness (0.86–0.96), and low dominance (0.12–0.17). Water temperature showed no significant relationship with plankton diversity but was strongly correlated with evenness. These findings suggest that plankton community structure was influenced by the combined effects of temperature, nutrient availability, and local hydrodynamic conditions rather than temperature alone. This study provides insight into the ecological response of plankton communities to thermal plume dispersion and supports environmentally sustainable management of coastal power plant cooling-water discharges.
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