Prediction on Burn Area of Forest and Land Fire 1997-2005 due to Anthropogenic Factors Using CMIP5 Data

Lesi Mareta, Arnida Lailatul Latifah, Rahmat Hidayat, Rini Hidayati

Abstract

Forest and land fires are an annual local and national disaster that occurs in Indonesia.  Forest and land fires are influenced by two factors, are natural forcing and /or anthropogenic forcing (human activity). Human activity releases large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), oxidantrates, nitrogen dioxide (NOx) and particulates which act as sources of greenhouse warming that have been monitored by satellites in recent years. This study will examine the burn area of forest and land fires in recent decades due to the influence of anthropogenic factors in Kalimantan using two types of data groups to be analyzed, namely data without and with anthropogenic components. Analysis by utilizing output data from the CMIP5. This study uses a statistical approach to the technique of Random Forests (RF) to evaluate the contribution of climate and anthropogenic factors to the extent of forest and land fires in the Kalimantan region. General conditions of forest and land fires are based on observational data obtained from GFED data. The two highest areas that occurred in Kalimantan during the period 1997 to 2005 occurred in 1997 and 2002. According to the three models in 1997 and 2002 it was seen that anthropogenic factors had a more dominant influence on the extent of forest and land fires in Kalimantan. In 1997 and 2002 the extent of forest and land fires due to anthropogenic influences was positive (causing extensive forest and land fires to increase).

References

Anggraini N, Trisakti B. 2009. Kajian dampak perubahan iklim terhadap di provinsi kalimantan barat. J. Penginderaan Jauh 811–20.

Byron N, Shepherd G. 1998. Indonesia And The 1997-98 El Niño : Fire Problems And Long-Term Solutions. Nat. Resour. Perspect. (28):.

Collier M, Uhe P. 2012. CMIP5 Datasets From The ACCESS1.0 And ACCESS1.3 Coupled Climate Models. Austrllia.

Guo F, Zhang L, Jin S, Tigabu M, Su Z, Wang W. 2016. Modeling anthropogenic fire occurrence in the boreal forest of China using logistic regression and random forests. J. Forest. 7(11):1–14. doi:10.3390/f7110250.

Hunawan D. 2016. Menyelesaikan Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan (Karhutla) di Indonesia melalui “ Jalan Pantas ” atau “ Jalan Pintas ”? J. Univ. Negeri Semarang 2(1):277–292.

Langmann B, Heil A. 2004. Release and dispersion of vegetation and peat fire emissions in the atmosphere over Indonesia 1997 / 1998. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 42145–2160.

Lestari RK, Watanabe M, Imada Y, Shiogama H, Field RD, Takemura T, Kimoto M. 2015. Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra , Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming. IOP Publishing, p.

Mareta L, Hidayat R, Hidayati R, Latifah AL. 2019a. Pengaruh Faktor Alami dan Antropogenik Terhadap Luas Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan di Kalimantan The Influence of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors on the Area of Forest and Land Fires in Kalimantan. J. Tanah Dan Iklim 48(2):143–151.

Mareta L, Hidayat R, Hidayati R, Alsepan G. 2019b. Influence of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2012 and El Niño-southern oscillation ( ENSO ) in 2015 on The Indonesian Rainfall Variability Influence of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2012 and El Niño - southern oscillation ( ENSO ) in 2015 on The. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. 284. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/284/1/012018.

Rotstayn LD, Collier MA, Dix MR, Feng Y, Gordon HB, O’Farrell SP, Smith IN, Syktus J. 2010. Improved simulation of Australian climate and ENSO-related rainfall variability in a global climate model with an interactive aerosol treatment. Int. J. Climatol. 30(7):1067–1088. doi:10.1002/joc.1952.

Siegert F, Hoffmann AA. 1998. The 1998 Forest Fires in East Kalimantan ( Indonesia ): A Quantitative Evaluation Using High Resolution , Multitemporal ERS-2 SAR Images and NOAA-AVHRR Hotspot Data. Elsevier 4257(99):.

Tacconi L. 2003. Kebakaran Hutan di Indonesia : Cifor Occas. Pap. 38(i):38. doi:ISSN 0854-9818.

Authors

Lesi Mareta
lesi.mareta@sap.itera.ac.id (Primary Contact)
Arnida Lailatul Latifah
Rahmat Hidayat
Rini Hidayati
MaretaL., Arnida Lailatul Latifah, HidayatR. and HidayatiR. (2021) “Prediction on Burn Area of Forest and Land Fire 1997-2005 due to Anthropogenic Factors Using CMIP5 Data”, Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management). Bogor, ID, 11(2), pp. 324-333. doi: 10.29244/jpsl.11.2.324-333.

Article Details

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 3 > >>