IMPACT OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND LAND USE ON THE FUTURE STREAMFLOW FLUCTUATION
Article Sidebar
Accepted
16 April 2019
Published
16 April 2019
Keywords:
-
Cimate change, land use change in the plantation expansion, streamflow fluctuation, SWAT model
Abstract
Beside land use change, future climate change potentially alters streamflow fluctuation of a river basin in Indonesia. We investigated relative impact of changes in climate and land use on the streamflow fluctuation of a watershed for future condition (2025). To account for the climate change, we simulated future rainfall and temperature scenarios using the downscaled rainfall and mean surface temperature of 24 CMIP5 GCM outputs with moderate scenario of RCP4.5. We used distributed hydrologic model (SWAT) to simulate relative impact of changes in climate and plantation expansion on the future streamflow fluctuation. The SWAT model performed well with the Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values of 0.80-0.85 (calibration) and 0.84-0.86 (validation). The results indicated that the climate change caused 32% decrease of the low flows during dry season and 96% increase of the flooding peak discharge during rainy season. Meanwhile, the plantation expansion led to 40% decrease of the low flow in the dry season and 65% increase of the flooding peak discharge in wet season. Both changes indicated strong impact on the extreme events such as flooding peak discharge and low flows. The impact of the climate change on the increased peak discharge was stronger compared to that of land use change. Meanwhile, the impact of the land use change on the low flow was stronger compared to that of the climate change. The results of this study pointed out that both climate change and the plantation expansion potentially become crucial factors for the future water security in Indonesia.
References
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[25] Kelley, C.P., S. Mohtadi, M. A. Cane, R. Seager, Y. Kushnir, 2015. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 112, 3241–3246. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112.
[26] Khoi, D. N., T. Suetsugi, 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes andsediment yield a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal–Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59 (5) 2014.
[27] Li, F., G. Zhang, Y. J. Xu, 2014. Separating the Impacts of Climate Variation and Human Activities on Runoff in the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China. Water 2014, 6, 3320-3338; doi:10.3390/w6113320.
[28] Li, Z., W. Liu, X. Zhang, F. Zheng, 2009. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. Journal of Hydrology 377 (2009) 35–42.
[29] Ma, Z., S. Kang, L. Zhang, L. Tong, X. Su, 2008. Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. Journal of Hydrology (2008) 352, 239– 249.
[30] Mcintyre, N., 2007. How will climate change im-pact on fresh water security? Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London.
[31] Meijide, A., A. Röll, F. Fan, M. Herbst, F. Niu, F. Tiedemann, T. June, A. Rauf, D. Hölscher, A. Knohl. 2017. Controls of water and energy fluxes in oil palm plantations: Environmental variables and oil palm age. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 239 (2017): 71–85.
[32] Merten, J., A. Röll, T. Guillaume, A. Meijide, S. Tarigan, Agusta H, Dislich C, Dittrich C, Faust H, Gunawan D, Hendrayanto, Knohl A, Kuzyakov Y, Wiegand K, Hölscher D (2016) Water scarcity and oil palm expansion: social views and environmental processes. Ecology and Society, 21, 2, 5-16.
[33] Moss RH, et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 2010. 463
[34] Mwangi HM, Julich S, Pati SD, McDonald MA, Feger KH (2016) Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 5 (2016) 244–260.
[35] Naylor RL, Battisti DS, Vimont DJ, Falcon WP, Burke MS (2007) Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104(19): 7752-7757
[36] Nash J, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models, 1, A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol ., 10, 282–290, 1970.
[37] Pereira LS, Oweis T, Zairi A (2002) Irrigation management under water scarcity. Agric. Wat. Management 57 (2002) 175-206
[38] Rijsberman FR (2006). Water scarcity: Fact or fiction? Agric. Wat. Management 80 (2006) 5–22.
[39] Röll A, Niu F, Meijide A, Hardanto A, Hendrayanto, Knohl A, and Hölscher D (2015) Transpiration in an oil palm landscape: effects of palm age. Biogeosciences, 12, 5619–5633.
[40] Tarigan SD (2016a). Land Cover Change and Its Impact on Flooding Frequency of Batanghari watershed Jambi Province, Indonesia. Procedia Environmental Sciences 33 (2016 ) 386 – 392.
[41] Tarigan SD (2016b) Modeling effectiveness of management practices for flood mitigation using GIS spatial analysis functions in Upper Cilliwung watershed. IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environ-mental Science 31(2016)012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/31/1/012030.
[42] Tarigan, SD, et al. (2016). Mitigation options for improving the ecosystem function of water flow regulation in a watershed with rapid expansion of oil palm plantations. Sustain. Water Qual. Ecol, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.swaqe.2016.05.001.
[43] Tarigan SD, Wiegand K, Sunarti (2017) Minimum forest cover for sustainable water flow regulation in a watershed under rapid expansion of oil palm and rubber plantations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-116, in review, 2017.
[44] Thomson AM, et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change. 109: p. 77–94.
[45] Wicke B, Sikkema R, Dornburg V, Faaij A (2011) Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Land Use Policy 28 (1), 193–206.
[46] Xu X, Yang D, Yang H, Lei H (2014) Attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for detecting the dominant cause of runoff decline in Haihe basin. Journal of Hydrology 510 (2014) 530–540.
[47] Yang L, Feng Q, Yin Z, Wen X, Si J, Li C, Deo RC (2017) Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River, Northwest China. Hydrological Processes 31(5) :1100–1112. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.11098.
[48] Zimmermann B, Elsenbeer H (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity in gradients of disturbance. J. Hydrol. 361, 78–95. doi:http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.027.
[49] Zhang XP, Zhang L, Zhao J, Rustomji P, Hairsine P (2008) Response of streamflow to changes in climate and land use/cover in the Loess Plateau, China. Water Resour. Res. 44, W00A07, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006711.
[50] Zhang L, Nan Z, Xu Y, Li S (2016) Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. PLoS One. 2016; 11(6):e0158394. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158394.
[51] Zheng H, Zhang L, Zhu R, Liu C, Sato Y, and Fukushima Y (2009) Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow River Basin, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00A19, doi:10.1029/2007WR006665
[2] Adnan, N. A., P.M. Atkinson, 2011. Exploring the impact of climate and land-use changes on streamflow trends in a monsoon catchment. In-ternational Journal of Climatology 31, 815–831.
[3] Afriyanti, D., C. Kroeze, A. Saad, 2016. Indonesia palm oil production without deforestation and peat conversionby 2050. Science of the Total Environment 557–558 (2016) 562–570.
[4] Arnold, J.G., D. N. Moriasi, P.W. Gassman, K.C. Abbaspour, M. J. White, R. Srinivasan, R. C. San-thi, R. D. Harmel, A. van Griensven, M.W. Van Liew, N. Kannan, and M. K. Jha, 2012. SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation. Transac. of the ASABE, 55, 4, 1491-1508.
[5] Babel, M. S., B. Shrestha, S.R. Perret, 2011. Hydrological impact of biofuel production: A case study of the Khlong Phlo Watershed in Thailand. Agricultural Water Management. 101(1): 8-26. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2011.08.019
[6] Babel, M. S., A. Agarwal, V. R. Shinde, 2014. Climate change impacts on water resources and selected water use sectors. In Shrestha S, M.S. Babel, Pandey (Eds.), Climate Change and Water Resources, V.P. CRC Press
[7] Banabas, M., M. A. Turner, D. R. Scotter, P. N. Nelson, 2008. Losses of nitrogen fertilizer under oil palm in Papua New Guinea: 1. Water balance, and nitrogen in soil solution and runoff. Aust. J. Soil Res. 46, 332–339
[8] Bao, Z., J. Zhang, G. Wang, G. Fu, R. He, X. Yan, J. Jin, Y. Liu, A. Zhang, 2012. Attribution for decreasing streamflow of the Haihe River basin, northern China: Climate variability or human activities? Journal of Hydrology 460–461 (2012) 117–129.
[9] Boer, R., A. Faqih, 2004. An Integrated Assess-ment of Climate change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watershed Areas and Communities in Southeast Asia, Report from AIACC Project No. AS21 (Annex C, 95-126) International START Secretariat, Washington, District of Columbia.
[10] Bruijnzeel, L. A., 1989. (De)forestation and dry season flow in the tropics: a closer look. In: J of Tropical Forest Science 1(3): 229-243.
[11] Bruijnzeel, L. A., 2004. Hydrological functions of tropical forests: not seeing the soil for the trees? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 104(1):185–228,
[12] Comte, I., F. Colin, J. K. Whalen, O. Gruenberger, J. P. Caliman, 2012. Agricultural practices in oil palm plantations and their impact on hydrological changes, nutrient fluxes and water quality in Indonesia: a review. Advances in Agronomy 116, 71–124.
[13] Drescher, J., K. Rembold, K. Allen, P. Beckschäfer, D. Buchori, Y. Clough, H. Faust, A. M. Fauzi, D. Gunawan, D. Hertel, B. Irawan, I. N. S. Jaya, B. Klarner, C. Kleinn, A. Knohl, M. M. Kotowska, V. Krashevska, V. Krishna, C. Leuschner, W. Lorenz, A. Meijide, D. Melati, M. Nomura, C. Pérez-Cruzado, M. Qaim, I. Z. Siregar, S. Steinebach, A. Tjoa, T. Tscharntke, B. Wick, K. Wiegand, H. Kreft, S. Scheu. 2016. Eco-logical and socioeconomic functions across tropi-cal land-use systems after rainforest conversion. Phil. Trans. R. Soc., B 371, 20150275.
[14] Ditjenbun, 2015.Indonesian plantation statistics. Directorate General for Plantations, Ministry of Agriculture Indonesia.
[15] Ellison, D., C. E. Morris, B. Locatelli, D. Sheil, et al., 2017. Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world. Global Environmental Change 43 (2017) 51–61 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.gloenvcha.2017.01.002.
[16] Faqih, A., (2017) A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets. IOP Con-ference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2017. 58(1): p. 012051.
[17] Faqih, A., et al., (2016) Historical climate and future climate scenarios in Indonesia: Climate analysis and modeling, in Final report Indonesia Third National Communication 2016, United Nation Development Programme (UNDP), Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF), Bogor Ag-ricultural University (IPB): Indonesia.
[18] Guo, J., X. Su, V. P. Singh, J. Jin, 2016. Impacts of Climate and Land Use/Cover Change on Streamflow Using SWAT and a Separation Method for the Xiying River Basin in Northwest-ern China. Water 2016, 8, 192; doi:10.3390/w8050192.
[19] Gupta, H. V., S. Sorooshian, P. O. Yapo, 1999. Status of automatic calibration for hydrologic models: Comparison with multilevel expert calibration. J. Hydrologic Eng., 4(2): 135‐143.
[20] Hardanto, A. Röll, Hendrayanto, D. Hölscher, 2017. Tree soil water uptake and transpiration in monocultural and jungle rubber stands of Sumatra. Forest Ecology and Management 397: 67-77.
[21] He, Y., K. Lin, X. Chen, 2013. Effect of Land Use and Climate Change on Runoff in the Dongjiang Basin of South China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering Volume 2013 (2013). http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/471429.
[22] Hulme, M., N. Sheard, 1999. Climate Change Scenarios for Indonesia. Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, UK, 6pp.
[23] Ibrahim, A. B., S. Ginting, 2009. Impact of cli-mate and land use changes on hydrologic characteristics and water resources in Indonesia. In Identification of Climate Change Impact on Wa-ter Resources on Indonesia. ISBN: 978-979-8801-36-5 p. 55-72. Ministry of Research and Technology.
[24] Jackson, R. B., E. G. Jobbágy, R. Avissar, S. B. Roy, D. J. Barrett, C. W. Cook, K. A. Farley, D. C. le Maitre, B. A. McCarl, B. C. Murray, 2005. Trading water for carbon with biological carbon sequestration. Science 310 (5756), 1944–1947.
[25] Kelley, C.P., S. Mohtadi, M. A. Cane, R. Seager, Y. Kushnir, 2015. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 112, 3241–3246. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112.
[26] Khoi, D. N., T. Suetsugi, 2014. Impact of climate and land-use changes on hydrological processes andsediment yield a case study of the Be River catchment, Vietnam. Hydrological Sciences Journal–Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59 (5) 2014.
[27] Li, F., G. Zhang, Y. J. Xu, 2014. Separating the Impacts of Climate Variation and Human Activities on Runoff in the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China. Water 2014, 6, 3320-3338; doi:10.3390/w6113320.
[28] Li, Z., W. Liu, X. Zhang, F. Zheng, 2009. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. Journal of Hydrology 377 (2009) 35–42.
[29] Ma, Z., S. Kang, L. Zhang, L. Tong, X. Su, 2008. Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. Journal of Hydrology (2008) 352, 239– 249.
[30] Mcintyre, N., 2007. How will climate change im-pact on fresh water security? Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London.
[31] Meijide, A., A. Röll, F. Fan, M. Herbst, F. Niu, F. Tiedemann, T. June, A. Rauf, D. Hölscher, A. Knohl. 2017. Controls of water and energy fluxes in oil palm plantations: Environmental variables and oil palm age. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 239 (2017): 71–85.
[32] Merten, J., A. Röll, T. Guillaume, A. Meijide, S. Tarigan, Agusta H, Dislich C, Dittrich C, Faust H, Gunawan D, Hendrayanto, Knohl A, Kuzyakov Y, Wiegand K, Hölscher D (2016) Water scarcity and oil palm expansion: social views and environmental processes. Ecology and Society, 21, 2, 5-16.
[33] Moss RH, et al (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 2010. 463
[34] Mwangi HM, Julich S, Pati SD, McDonald MA, Feger KH (2016) Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 5 (2016) 244–260.
[35] Naylor RL, Battisti DS, Vimont DJ, Falcon WP, Burke MS (2007) Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104(19): 7752-7757
[36] Nash J, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models, 1, A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol ., 10, 282–290, 1970.
[37] Pereira LS, Oweis T, Zairi A (2002) Irrigation management under water scarcity. Agric. Wat. Management 57 (2002) 175-206
[38] Rijsberman FR (2006). Water scarcity: Fact or fiction? Agric. Wat. Management 80 (2006) 5–22.
[39] Röll A, Niu F, Meijide A, Hardanto A, Hendrayanto, Knohl A, and Hölscher D (2015) Transpiration in an oil palm landscape: effects of palm age. Biogeosciences, 12, 5619–5633.
[40] Tarigan SD (2016a). Land Cover Change and Its Impact on Flooding Frequency of Batanghari watershed Jambi Province, Indonesia. Procedia Environmental Sciences 33 (2016 ) 386 – 392.
[41] Tarigan SD (2016b) Modeling effectiveness of management practices for flood mitigation using GIS spatial analysis functions in Upper Cilliwung watershed. IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environ-mental Science 31(2016)012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/31/1/012030.
[42] Tarigan, SD, et al. (2016). Mitigation options for improving the ecosystem function of water flow regulation in a watershed with rapid expansion of oil palm plantations. Sustain. Water Qual. Ecol, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.swaqe.2016.05.001.
[43] Tarigan SD, Wiegand K, Sunarti (2017) Minimum forest cover for sustainable water flow regulation in a watershed under rapid expansion of oil palm and rubber plantations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-116, in review, 2017.
[44] Thomson AM, et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change. 109: p. 77–94.
[45] Wicke B, Sikkema R, Dornburg V, Faaij A (2011) Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Land Use Policy 28 (1), 193–206.
[46] Xu X, Yang D, Yang H, Lei H (2014) Attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for detecting the dominant cause of runoff decline in Haihe basin. Journal of Hydrology 510 (2014) 530–540.
[47] Yang L, Feng Q, Yin Z, Wen X, Si J, Li C, Deo RC (2017) Identifying separate impacts of climate and land use/cover change on hydrological processes in upper stream of Heihe River, Northwest China. Hydrological Processes 31(5) :1100–1112. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.11098.
[48] Zimmermann B, Elsenbeer H (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity in gradients of disturbance. J. Hydrol. 361, 78–95. doi:http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.027.
[49] Zhang XP, Zhang L, Zhao J, Rustomji P, Hairsine P (2008) Response of streamflow to changes in climate and land use/cover in the Loess Plateau, China. Water Resour. Res. 44, W00A07, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006711.
[50] Zhang L, Nan Z, Xu Y, Li S (2016) Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. PLoS One. 2016; 11(6):e0158394. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158394.
[51] Zheng H, Zhang L, Zhu R, Liu C, Sato Y, and Fukushima Y (2009) Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow River Basin, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00A19, doi:10.1029/2007WR006665
Authors
TariganS. and FaqihA. (2019) “IMPACT OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND LAND USE ON THE FUTURE STREAMFLOW FLUCTUATION”, Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management). Bogor, ID, 9(1), pp. 181-189. doi: 10.29244/jpsl.9.1.181-189.
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