SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PRODUKSI DAN PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA TERHADAP INDUSTRI GULA DOMESTIK
Abstrak
Gula merupakan salah satu komoditas penting di Indonesia karena pemanfaatannya yang beragam untuk rumah tangga dan industri. Studi ini bertujuan untuk memeriksa kondisi industri terdahulu yang terkait dengan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan dan penawaran gula Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode persamaan simultan dengan estimasi Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) selama tahun 2003 hingga 2020. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa harga gula dalam negeri dan harga gula internasional memiliki dampak pada ukuran panen di perkebunan. Selain itu, variabel Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga. Stok dan harga gula merupakan dua faktor utama yang memengaruhi tingkat impor gula Indonesia dari pasar global. Hasil dari simulasi kebijakan menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan peningkatan luas lahan dan penurunan impor karena dapat mendorong produktivitas domestik agar industri gula di Indonesia dapat bersaing.
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