Rainfall and Temperature Change Analysis and their Correlation on Maize Productionin Karawang, West Java

Abstract

Maize is an important food commodity and its yields can be threatened by changes in climate variables, such as increasing air temperature and decreasing rainfall. The research identifies and detect the change in climate variables and analyze their correlation with maize production. Quantitative and descriptive methods were used namely trend analysis, correlation, and regression. We utilized climate data (temperature and rainfall) and maize production for 1991-2022, with tested study area in Karawang, West Java. We divided the climate data into two periods to analyze any change in climate variables. The results indicated a change in temperature (+0.56 °C) and rainfall (-47.34 mm) per year, but there is no change in the agroclimatic zone. Our findings showed a moderate correlation between rainfall and maize production and productivity, with the mean correlation coefficients of 0.31 and 0.35, respectively. Similarly, air temperature showed a moderate correlation with maize production and productivity, with the mean correlation coefficients of 0.30 and 0.32, respectively. Appropriate anticipatory and adaptation efforts are needed to maintain maize production in rainfed agriculture such as in Karawang Regency.