Ketahanan Pangan Di Tengah Ketergantungan Impor Beras: Analisis Tren Dan Faktor-Faktor Yang Memengaruhinya
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29244/fagb.15.2.346-360Keywords:
consumption, food security, import, production, riceAbstract
Food security is a strategic aspect of national development, especially in the context of population growth dynamics and dependence on rice imports. This study aims to evaluate the historical trend of Indonesia's rice imports for the 10-year period 2015-2024 and analyze the influence of population, rice production, harvest area, and farmer exchange rate (NTP) variables on the national food security index. The methodological approach used includes trend analysis and import forecasting as well as multiple linear regression to identify the main determinants of food security. The results of the analysis show that the trend of rice imports has increased fluctuatively, while the projection for the next 10 years shows a positive trend (almost touching 5 million tons). This reflects the imbalance between domestic production capacity and consumption growth. Furthermore, the variables of population, production, harvest area and NTP are proven to have a significant effect on national food security. These findings make an important contribution to the formulation of food security policies based on empirical evidence and medium to long term planning. The findings suggest the importance of cross-sectoral coordination between food, agriculture and trade agencies to ensure the effectiveness of policy interventions. Therefore, it is recommended that the government strengthen food distribution policies, reformulate the farmer exchange rate scheme, and limit imports to emergency conditions to maintain national food security independence and stability.
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