Prediksi Ketidaksesuaian Lahan Terbangun Berbasis Cellular Automata di Satuan Ruang Strategis Pantai Selatan Gunungkidul <i>Cellular Automata-Based Potential Inconsistency of Built-Up Area in Gunungkidul Southern Coast Strategic Space Unit</i>
Abstract
The development of the South Coast Strategic Spatial Unit of Gunungkidul Regency aims to realize a disaster-resilient and sustainable area. One of them is the construction of the South Cross Road Line (JJLS), which will encourage economic growth in the southern route and the development of the tourism sector. This research aims to identify the potential inconsistency of built-up area predicted in the final year of 2043 with the strategic spatial pattern plan for regional development in the Gunungkidul Southern Coast strategic spatial area. The method used is spatial-temporal-based, using a quantitative approach with Cellular Automata ANN-Markov Chain in Terrset software to predict built-up area in 2043, based on the results of the land cover matrix in 2003 and 2013. Land cover classification is based on the use of three multitemporal satellite images, namely Landsat 7 ETM+ in 2003, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS in 2013 and Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS Surface Reflectance in 2023. The research results show the highest trend of built-up land during the years 2003-2023, reaching 430.27 Ha. The highest spatial pattern of Pansela SRS non-conformity is in the production forest area by 43%, reservoir/pond border area by 19%, and coastal and small islands conservation area by 15%. The most built-up land mismatches were found in the Kanigoro sub-district, Kapanewon Saptosari, at 39.12% with a spatial pattern of production forest (24.70 Ha), reservoir/pond border (1.31 Ha) and coastal and small island conservation areas (2.89 Ha).
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