ESTIMATION OF GHG EMISSIONS BASED ON LAND USE CHANGE IN RUPAT ISLAND SPATIAL PATTERNS

Abstract

Rupat Island, with 77.39% of its total land area of 152,371 ha consisting of peatlands, has experienced deforestation, forest degradation, and land conversion, making it both vulnerable to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and strategically important for land-based emission control. This study aims to estimate GHG emissions from the LULUCF sector through the identification of land cover/use changes in 2000, 2010, and 2020. Emission calculations were conducted using the stock difference approach of aboveground biomass as emission/sequestration factors for each land cover/use category. Emission projections for 2030 and 2040 were derived by comparing historical land cover/use changes with predicted land cover/use under the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. These values were then compared with emissions estimated under the Spatial Planning (RTRW) scenario for 2022–2042. The results indicate a declining trend in emissions from land cover/use changes and peat decomposition, decreasing from 10.37 million tons of CO₂ in 2000–2010 to 7.99 million tons of CO₂ in 2010–2020. Total BAU emissions also show a reduction, estimated at 3.79 million tons of CO₂ for 2020–2030 and 3.45 million tons of CO₂ for 2030–2040. Meanwhile, total emissions under the RTRW scenario for 2022–2042 are projected to be 113% lower compared to BAU emissions for 2020–2040, which reached 3.95 million tons of CO₂.