Dynamics of Mangrove Land Cover Change in IKN (Nusantara Capital City) Area Based on the Automatic Mangrove Map and Index

Abstract

The development of the Nusantara Capital City (IKN) as Indonesia’s new administrative centre has the potential to impact mangrove ecosystems due to changes in land cover and large-scale infrastructure development. Mangrove ecosystems play a vital role in supporting the implementation of the ‘forest city’ concept, as they function as coastal protectors, carbon sinks, and maintainers of ecological balance in coastal areas. This study aims to identify the dynamics of changes in the area, density, and land cover of mangrove ecosystems in the IKN area using a remote sensing approach based on the Automatic Mangrove Map and Index (AMMI) and the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results indicate that the area of mangrove ecosystems decreased from 12,818.93 ha in 2005 to 9,597.98 ha in 2024. The most significant decline occurred following the commencement of the first phase of IKN development. Mangrove density levels are generally still dominated by the ‘very dense’ category, though the area covered by this category decreased by 2024.  Analysis of changes in land cover shows that some mangrove areas have been converted into water bodies, agricultural or plantation areas, built-up areas, and open land. These changes indicate ecological pressures that have the potential to reduce the coastal protection functions and carbon storage capacity of mangrove ecosystems. Therefore, the sustainable conservation and management of mangroves is necessary to support the implementation of the ‘forest city’ concept in the IKN area.