The Dinamics of Landuse Change and Prediction 2025 Also Its Associations with Spatial Planning 2005-2025 in Bogor Regency

Abstract

The demand for land increases triggered by population growth, development of community structures and economy. On the other hand, the supply of land is somewhat constant, thus it will lead to land conversion. This study aims to identify land-use changes in Bogor Regency in 1989-2013 to determine factors affecting land-use change in Bogor Regency to predict land use in 2025 and to assess its accuracy, and to evaluate the conformity of predicted land use with Spatial Plan of Bogor Regency 2005-2025. The highest rate of change was in cropland including wet agricultural land (paddy fields) and dry agricultural land (garden and upland). A total change of agricultural uses into the built-up area was 47,953 ha or 16.04%. Factors increasing the change of agricultural land into non-agricultural uses are location permits in 2005, areal allocated for industrial area, and distance of land to the road. Factors decreasing the change are slope (16 – 25%), type of soil particularly Podzolik, and the distance of land to the government center. Markov analysis generated prediction of land use in 2013 with accuracy 80.49%. Result of conformity analysis between actual landuse in 2013 and Spatial Plan Bogor Regency indicates a problem in an area as much as 63,822 ha (21.36%), where the forest area reduced by 64.90% paddy field lowered by 20.68% and waterbody declined by 6.49%. The result of conformity analysis between predicted landuse in 2025 and Spatial Plan Bogor Regency indicates potential problem related to spatial planning in Bogor Regency as much as 75,577 ha (25.29%), where the forest area potentially reduced by 72.41%, paddy field potentially lowered by 33.62%, and waterbody potentially declined by 24.64%. The result indicates an increase of unconformity from 2013 amounted to 11,856 ha (3.96%).

Keywords: Binary logistic regression, landuse change, landuse modeling, Markov Chain