Modelling of Carrying Capacity at Komodo National Park: System Dynamics Approach (Case Study: Komodo Island and Padar Island, East Nusa Tenggara Province)
Abstract
Komodo (Varanus komodoensis) with its wildlife is the only one in the world that lives in the Komodo National Park (KNP), East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. The conservation efforts are carried out by considering the carrying capacity to remain in line with the principles of sustainable tourism management. This study aims to analyze the carrying capacity of the visits carrying capacity on Komodo Island and Padar Island. The method used in this research is system dynamics analysis. The number of Komodo dragons in 2045 is estimated to increase to 4000-4500 Komodo dragons in KNP or around 2500 Komodo dragons in Komodo Island and Padar Island since the number of preys is still quite available in their habitat. However, without the implementation of low carbon development, there will be pressure on its population, which can drop to 800-900 Komodo dragons both on Komodo Island and Padar Island. Meanwhile, the temperature increase occurs until the year 2045 which reaches 0.8°C. In terms of the ideal number of visits on Komodo Island based on the carrying capacity calculation of 219,000 visits/year, on Padar Island the ideal number of visits is 39,420 visits/year and it can be still increased up to 2-2.5 times
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Baird ME et al. 2018. A mechanistic model of coral bleaching due to temperature-mediated light-driven reactive oxygen build-up in zooxanthellae. Ecological Modelling, 386: 20-37.
[BTNK] Balai Taman Nasional Komodo. 2016. Komodo National Park Long Term Management Plan 2016 – 2025. Labuan Bajo, Balai Taman Nasioal Komodo.
[BTNK] Balai Taman Nasional Komodo. 2022. Recapitulation of tourist visits in Komodo National Park. Labuan Bajo, Balai Taman Nasioal Komodo.
[BTNK] Balai Taman Nasional Komodo, Mengelola Sampah Bersama Multipihak. Labuan Bajo, Balai Taman Nasioal Komodo, 2016. http://ksdae.menlhk.go.id/topnews/1971/balai-tn-komodo-mengelola-sampah-bersama-multipihak.html. Accessed on 14 April 2022
David J. Nowak, Robert Hoehn, and Daniel E. Crane. Oxygen Production by Urban Trees in the United States. Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 2017. 33 (3);220-226
Firmansyah I et al. 2019. Spatial dynamics of agricultural lands in regions with high pressure land use change (Case study of Purwakarta regency). IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 363
Firmansyah I. 2016. Model for controlling animal land conversion in the citarum watershed. Dissertation. IPB University
Ford A. 1996. Testing snake river explorer. System Dynamics Review. 12(4): 305–329.
Forth G. 2013. Symbolic lizards: forms of special purpose classification of animals among the nage of Eastern Indonesia. Anthrozoös, 26(3), 357-372.
Gauer RL, Meyers BK. 2019. Heat-related illnesses. American family physician, 99(8): 482-489.
[GO2NE] Global Ocean Oxygen Network. 2016. Providing a Global and Multidisciplinary View of Deoxygenation: Understanding its Multiple Aspects and Impacts. https://en.unesco.org/go2ne
Goers L et al. 2012. Economic drivers of tropical deforestation for agriculture. Managing forest carbon in a changing climate, 1: 305-320.
Hassanzadeh E et al. 2012. Determining the main factors in declining the Urmia Lake level by using system dynamics modeling. Water Resources Management, 26(1): 129-145.
Hell M, Petrić L. 2021. System dynamics approach to TALC modeling. Sustainability, 13(9): 4803.
Hufbauer RA et al. 2015. Three types of rescue can avert extinction in a changing environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(33): 10557-10562.
[IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2022. IPCC procedures the Synthesis Report. Switzerland
Jones AR et al. 2020. Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World’s largest lizard from global warming. Ecology and evolution, 10(19): 10492-10507.
Jones JP et al. 2018. Human migration to the forest frontier: Implications for land use change and conservation management. Geo: Geography and Environment, 5(1): 50.
Kusmana C, Sukwika T. 2018. Coastal community preference on the utilization of mangrove ecosystem and channelbar in Indramayu, Indonesia. AACL Bioflux, 11(3): 905-918.
[KLH] Kemeterian Lingkungan Hidup. 2009. Law no. 32 of 2009 concerning Environmental Protection and Management. Indonesia
Lellotery et al, Kajian Sosial Ekonomi Masyarakat dan Peran Stakeholder dalam Pengembangan Ekowisata di Taman Wisata Alam Pulau Marsegu Kabupaten Seram Bagian Barat. Jurnal Hutan Tropis Volume 6 Nomor 3 : 302-314.
Li FJ et al. 2012. A system dynamics model for analyzing the eco-agriculture system with policy recommendations. Ecological Modelling, 227: 34-45.
Lola MS et al. 2017. A System Dynamic Model for Sustainable Ecotourism in Tasik Kenyir, Malaysia. Preprints, 1: 1-13.
Mori AS et al. 2017. Biodiversity and ecosystem services in forest ecosystems: a research agenda for applied forest ecology. Journal of Applied Ecology, 54(1): 12-27.
Murphy JB et al. 2015. Komodo dragons: Biology and conservation. Smithsonian Institution.
Nelson HR, Altieri AH. (2019). Oxygen: the universal currency on coral reefs. Coral Reefs, 38(2): 177-198.
Nowak DJ et al. 2017. Oxygen production by urban trees in the United States. Arboriculture & Urban Forestry. 33 (3): 220-226
Ojea E et al. 2012. Defining and classifying ecosystem services for economic valuation: the case of forest water services. Environmental Science & Policy, 19: 1-15.
Price G. (2016). The ice age Lizards of Oz. Australasian Science, 37(3): 20-23.
Ruiz-Moreno D et al. 2012. Global coral disease prevalence associated with sea temperature anomalies and local factors. Diseases of aquatic organisms, 100(3): 249-261.
Savareiedes, A. 2000. Estbilishing the Socia Carrying Capacity for the Tourist Resort of tha East Coast of Republic of Cyfrus. Journal of Tourism Managemen, 21, 147-156.
Septriana D et al. 2004. Predicting oxygen-base urban forest needs in Padang city, West Sumatera. Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika, 10(2): 47-57
Sheppard C et al. 2017. Coral bleaching and mortality in the Chagos Archipelago. Atoll Research Bulletin, (613), 1-26.
Shine R, Somaweera R. 2019. Last lizard standing: The enigmatic persistence of the komodo dragon. Global Ecology and Conservation, 18: 624.
Sukwika T, Fransisca L. (2021). The policy model for sustainable community forest: A factor analysis. Indonesian Journal of Forestry Research, 8(2), 135-157.
Sukwika T et al. 2022. Institutional network of the peat ecosystem restoration plan in Riau province: Hierarchy and classification approaches. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 976: 012019.
Sukwika T et al. 2020. The institutional of local community and stratification of land ownership in surrounding community forests in Bogor. Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika, 26(1), 59-59.
Sunkar A et al. 2020. Role of culture in the emotional response towards komodo dragon in Komodo and Rinca Islands of Komodo National Park. BIO Web of Conferences, 19: 21.
Zarghami M, Akbariyeh S. 2012. System Dynamics Modeling for Complex Urban Water Systems: Application to The City of Tabriz, Iran. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 60: 99-106
Zhan S F et al. 2012. Dynamic modelling for ecology and economic sustainability in a rapid urbanizing region. Procedia Environmental Science, 13: 242-251.
Zhang M et al. 2015. Impact of land use type conversion on carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of China: A spatial-temporal perspective. Scientific reports, 5(1), 1-13.
Zhu K et al. 2014. Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history. Global change biology, 20(1): 251-264.
Giglio VJ et al. 2015. Marine life preferences and perceptions among recreational divers in Brazilian coral reefs. Tourism Management, 51: 49-57.
Lelloltery H et al. 2018. Study of coral reef for marine ecotourism development based on region suitability and carrying capacity in Marsegu Island Nature Tourism Park, Maluku, Indonesia. Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity, 19(3): 1089-1096.
Authors
FirmansyahI. (2023) “Modelling of Carrying Capacity at Komodo National Park: System Dynamics Approach (Case Study: Komodo Island and Padar Island, East Nusa Tenggara Province) ”, Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management). Bogor, ID, 13(3), pp. 492-506. doi: 10.29244/jpsl.13.3.492-506.
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