Projection of further expansion of oil palm plantation in Jambi Province
Abstract
The expansion of oil palm plantations has become of global concern. Jambi province in Indonesia is one of the regions experiencing a rapid shift in land use, and oil palm plantation, settlement, and agriculture has emerged as the primary force behind this shift. This study aims to project scenarios of future land-use change and expansion of oil palm plantation in Jambi Province in 2030, 2060, and 2100. Projections of land-use change scenarios are conducted using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in which Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) is the model base. The validation of model against historic land-use changes showed an overall kappa value of 0.97. In the no-conservation scenario assuming a continuation of the trends from 1990 to 2011, the forest area is continuing to decrease. . Oil palm would replace forest as dominant land-use cover in Jambi Province in 2100. Driving factors explaining the spatial distribution of oil palm plantation expansion include distance from forest, distance from road, and elevation. Our study shows the importance of government regulations to to slow or stop deforestation especially for forests near plantations.
References
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2. Azzahra F, Dharmawan AH, Pandjaitan NK. Women and Livelihood Resilience of Household: Analysis of Oil Palm Expansion Impact in Jambi. Sodality: Jurnal Sosiologi Pedesaan. 2017 [accessed 2022 May 15];5(1). https://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/sodality/article/view/16269. doi:10.22500/SODALITY.V5I1.16269
3. Badan Pusat Statistik. Luas Kawasan Hutan. 2022. https://jambi.bps.go.id/indicator/60/442/1/luas-kawasan-hutan.html
4. Busch J, Ferretti-Gallon K, Engelmann J, Wright M, Austin KG, Stolle F, Turubanova S, Potapov P V., Margono B, Hansen MC, et al. Reductions in emissions from deforestation from Indonesia’s moratorium on new oil palm, timber, and logging concessions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2015 [accessed 2022 Nov 20];112(5):1328–1333. https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1412514112. doi:10.1073/PNAS.1412514112/SUPPL_FILE/PNAS.1412514112.SAPP.PDF
5. Clough Y, Krishna V V, Corre MD, Darras K, Denmead LH, Meijide A, Moser S, Musshoff O, Steinebach S, Veldkamp E, et al. Land-use choices follow profitability at the expense of ecological functions in Indonesian smallholder landscapes. Nature communications. 2016 [accessed 2019 May 21];7:13137. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27725673. doi:10.1038/ncomms13137
6. Drescher J, Rembold K, Allen K, Beckschäfer P, Buchori D, Clough Y, Faust H, Fauzi AM, Gunawan D, Hertel D, et al. Ecological and socio-economic functions across tropical land use systems after rainforest conversion. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2016 [accessed 2020 Jul 18];371(1694):20150275. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0275. doi:10.1098/rstb.2015.0275
7. GAPKI. Kinerja Industri Sawit 2021 & Prospek 2022 - Gabungan Pengusaha Kelapa Sawit Indonesia (GAPKI). 2022 [accessed 2022 May 11]. https://gapki.id/news/20519/kinerja-industri-sawit-2021-prospek-2022
8. Gharaibeh A, Shaamala A, Obeidat R, Al-Kofahi S. Improving land-use change modeling by integrating ANN with Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model. Heliyon. 2020;6(9):e05092. doi:10.1016/J.HELIYON.2020.E05092
9. Gibson L, Münch Z, Palmer A, Mantel S. Future land cover change scenarios in South African grasslands – implications of altered biophysical drivers on land management. Heliyon. 2018;4(7):e00693. doi:10.1016/J.HELIYON.2018.E00693
10. Hua AK. APPLICATION OF CA-MARKOV MODEL AND LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGES IN MALACCA RIVER WATERSHED, MALAYSIA. 2017 [accessed 2022 May 22]. http://dx.doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1504_605622. doi:10.15666/aeer/1504_605622
11. Kubitza C, Krishna V V., Alamsyah Z, Qaim M. The Economics Behind an Ecological Crisis: Livelihood Effects of Oil Palm Expansion in Sumatra, Indonesia. Human Ecology. 2018 [accessed 2022 May 15];46(1):107–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-017-9965-7. doi:10.1007/s10745-017-9965-7
12. Mathanraj S, Rusli N, Ling GHT. Applicability of the CA-Markov Model in Land-use/Land cover Change Prediction for Urban Sprawling in Batticaloa Municipal Council, Sri Lanka. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2021 [accessed 2022 Jun 19];620(1):012015. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/620/1/012015. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/620/1/012015
13. Maulidya A, Damayanti A, Indra TL, Dimyati M. Prediction of Land Change for Oil Palm Plantations in Penajam Subdistrict, Penajam Paser Utara Regency, East Kalimantan Province. Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 2021 [accessed 2022 Nov 20];1811(1):012072. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1811/1/012072. doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1811/1/012072
14. Meijide A, Badu CS, Moyano F, Tiralla N, Gunawan D, Knohl A. Impact of forest conversion to oil palm and rubber plantations on microclimate and the role of the 2015 ENSO event. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2018;252(October 2017):208–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.013. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.013
15. Melati DN. The use of remote sensing data to monitor land use systems and forest variables of the tropical rainforest landscape under transformation in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Georg-August-Universität Göttingen; 2017 [accessed 2019 Apr 21]. https://ediss.uni-goettingen.de/handle/11858/00-1735-0000-002E-E323-E
16. Merten J, Stiegler C, Hennings N, Purnama ES, Röll A, Agusta H, Dippold MA, Fehrmann L, Gunawan D, Hölscher D, et al. Flooding and land use change in Jambi Province, Sumatra: Integrating local knowledge and scientific inquiry. Ecology and Society. 2020 [accessed 2021 Feb 8];25(3):1–29. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11678-250314. doi:10.5751/ES-11678-250314
17. Nurfatriani F, Galih R, Sari K, Komarudin H. Optimalisasi dana sawit dan pengaturan instrumen fiskal penggunaan lahan hutan untuk perkebunan dalam upaya mengurangi deforestasi W O R K I N G P A P E R 2 3 8. Bogor; 2018. 238.
18. Rustiadi E, Barus B, Iman LS, Mulya SP, Pravitasari AE, Antony D. Land Use and Spatial Policy Conflicts in a Rich-Biodiversity Rain Forest Region: The Case of Jambi Province, Indonesia. Springer, Singapore; 2018 [accessed 2019 Apr 22]. p. 277–296. http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-981-10-5927-8_15. doi:10.1007/978-981-10-5927-8_15
19. Sabajo CR, Knohl A, le Maire G, Roupsard O, June T, Meijide A. Expansion of oil palm and other cash crops causes an increase of the land surface temperature in the Jambi province in Indonesia. Biogeosciences. 2017;14(20):4619–4635. doi:10.5194/bg-14-4619-2017
20. Tarigan SD. Land Cover Change and its Impact on Flooding Frequency of Batanghari Watershed, Jambi Province, Indonesia. Procedia Environmental Sciences. 2016 [accessed 2019 Apr 28];33:386–392. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1878029616002541. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2016.03.089
21. Vijay V, Pimm SL, Jenkins CN, Smith SJ. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss. PLOS ONE. 2016 [accessed 2022 May 11];11(7):e0159668. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0159668. doi:10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0159668
22. Wang SQ, Zheng XQ, Zang XB. Accuracy assessments of land use change simulation based on Markov-cellular automata model. Procedia Environmental Sciences. 2012 [accessed 2022 Jun 9];13:1238–1245. www.sciencedirect.comwww.elsevier.com/locate/procedia. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2012.01.117
Authors
JuneT., Ma’rufahU., FaqihA., KoesmaryonoY., AliA. A. and KnohlA. (2023) “Projection of further expansion of oil palm plantation in Jambi Province ”, Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management). Bogor, ID, 13(3), pp. 484-493. doi: 10.29244/jpsl.13.3.484-493.
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