Spatial modeling on land use change in regional scale of Java Island based-on biophysical characteristics
Abstract
This study discusses biophysical-based spatial modeling for land-use change in Java Island considering neighborhood interactions between land use types and the changing area. These neighborhood characteristics used in the logistic regression model to estimate the probability of the change events occurrence. Moreover, the future role of land-use change is then projected using the Markov model based on the annual land-use changes map. The results indicate that paddy rice with an irrigation system (double cropping), especially in upland areas has a high positive spatial autocorrelation with the change areas. Residential area, paddy rice, and upland with intensive cropping have a high effect on the probability of change occurrence. Meanwhile, barren lands/dry land, bush-shrub, and mixed garden give a negative correlation to the change occurrences in agricultural lands. In the case of forestland, the results show some land-use types such as upland with intensive cropping and plantation have a positive contribution to the change of land. The accuracy of the model has also assessed through comparison of the projection with the actual area. The results indicate that the future role of each land-use type is different based on the trend period predictor in the model.
References
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Anselin, L., 1988. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publisher.
Baker, W.L., 1989. A review of models of landscape change. Landscape Ecology, 2:111-133.
Cliff, A. and Ord, J., 1973. Spatial autocorrelation. London: Pion.
Costanza, R., F. H. Sklar, and M. L. White. 1990. Modeling coastal landscape dynamics. BioScience, 40:91-107.
ESRI, 2016. ArcGIS version 10.3.
Evans, T.P., and Moran, E.F., 2002. Spatial integration of social and biophysical factors related to landcover change. Reprinted from: Population and Environment: Methods of Analysis. A Supplement to Vol. 28. Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change, Indiana University.
Firman, T., 2004, Major issues in Indonesia urban land development. Land Use Policy, 21:347-355.
Forman, R.T.T., and Godron, M., 1986. Landscape Ecology. Wiley.
Geist H. J., and Lambin E. F. 2002. Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. BioScience, 52:143-150.
Getis, A., and Aldstadt, J., 2004. Constructing the spatial weight matrix using a local statistic. Geographical Analysis, 36:90-104.
Hall, C.A.S., Tian, H., Qi, Y., Pontius, G., and Cornell, J., 1995. Modeling spatial and temporal patterns of tropical land use change. Journal of Biogeography, 22(4):753–757.
Himiyama, Y., 1994. The land use/cover change programme in Japan: A review and proposals. Geographical Review of Japan, Vol. 67 (Ser. B) No. 1:63-75.
Himiyama, Y., 1999. Modeling Land Use/Cover Changes: for What and How?. Proceeding of NIES Workshop on Information Bases and Modeling for Land-use and Land-cover Changes Studies in East Asia, August, 1999. Center for Global Environmental Research.
Jahan, S., 1986. The determination of stability and similarity of Markovian land use change processes: A theoretical and empirical analysis. Socio-Economic Planning Science, 20:243–251.
Lambin E.F, 1994. Modeling Deforestation Processes: A Review. TREES Series B. European Commission. Research Report No 1, EUR 15744:1-108.
Lambin, E.F., 1997. Modeling and monitoring land-cover change processes in tropical regions. Progress in Physical Geography, 21:375–393.
Muller, R. M. and Middleton, J., 1994. A Markov model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara region, Ontario, Canada. Landscape Ecology, 9:151–157.
Prasetyo, L.B. Kartodihardjo, H., Adiwibowo, S., Okarda, B. and Setiawan, Y., 2009. Spatial model approach on deforestation of Java sland, Indonesia. Journal of Integrated Field Science, 6:37-44.
Robinson, J., et al.1994. Land-Use and Land-Cover Projections: Report of Working Group C, in W. Meyer and B.L. Turner II (Eds). Changes in Land Use and Land Cover: a Global Perspective. Cambridge University Press, 73-92.
Schipper, R.A., 1996. Farming in a Fragile Future: Economics of Land Use with Applications in the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. Dissertation for the Department of Development Economics, Wageningen Agricultural University.
Setiawan, Y., Yoshino, K., and Philpot, W. D. 2013. Characterizing temporal vegetation dynamics of land use in regional scale of Java Island, Indonesia. Journal of Land Use Science, 8(1):1-30.
Setiawan, Y., and Yoshino, K. 2014. Detecting land use change from seasonal vegetation dynamics in regional scale with MODIS EVI 250 m time-series imagery. Journal of Land Use Science, 9(3):304-330.
Skole, D.L. and Tucker, C.J., 1993. Tropical deforestation and habitat fragmentation in the Amazon: Satellite data from 1978 to 1988. Science, 260:1905—1910.
Stewart, W. J., 1994. Introduction to the Numerical Solution of Markov Chains. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Stoorvogel J.J., 1995. Geographical Information Systems as a Tool to Explore Land Characteristics and Land–use, with Reference to Costa Rica. PhD Thesis, Wageningen Agricultural University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Tobler, W. R., 1970. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46:234-240.
Turner, B.L., Meyer, W. B and Skole, D. L., 1994. Global land-use/land-cover change: Towards an integrated program of study. Ambio, 23:91-95.
Turner, B.L. II, Lambin, E.F., and Reenberg, A., 2007. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104:20666-20671.
Veldkamp, A. and Fresco, L.O., 1996. CLUE - CR : An integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica. Ecological Modelling, 91:231-248.
Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, T.A., and Bouma, J., 1999. Land Use Change under Conditions of High Population Pressure: The Case of Java. Global Environmental Change, 9:303-312.
Verburg, P. H., Veldcamp, A., Willemen, L., Overmars, K. O., and Castella, J. C., 2004a. Landscape level analysis of the spatial and temporal complexity of land-use change. Geophysical Monograph-American Geophysical Union, 153:217-230.
Verburg, P.H., De Nijs, T.C.M, Van Eck, J.R. Visser, H., and De Jong, K., 2004b. A method to analyze neighborhood characteristics of land use patterns. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 28:667-690.
Weng, Q., 2002. Land use change analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China using satellite remote sensing, GIS and stochastic modeling. Journal of Environmental Management, 64:273-284.
Authors
SetiawanY. and YoshinoK. (2020) “Spatial modeling on land use change in regional scale of Java Island based-on biophysical characteristics”, Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management). Bogor, ID, 10(3), pp. 511-523. doi: 10.29244/jpsl.10.3.511-523.
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