IDENTIFYING AREAS AFFECTED BY FIRES IN SUMATRA BASED ON TIME SERIES OF REMOTELY SENSED FIRE HOTSPOTS AND SPATIAL MODELING

Abstract

Wildfires threaten the environment not only at local scales, but also at wider scales. Rapid monitoring system to detect active wildfires has been provided by satellite remote sensing technology, particularly through the advancement on thermal infrared sensors. However, satellite-based fire hotspots data, even at relatively high temporal resolution of less than one-day revisit period, such as time series of fire hotspots collected from TERRA and AQUA MODIS, do not tell exactly if they are fire ignitions or fire escapes, since other factors like wind, slope, and fuel biomass significantly drive the fire spread. Meanwhile, a number of biophysical fire simulation models have been developed, as tools to understand the roles of biophysical factors on the spread of wildfires.  Those models explicitly incorporate effects of slope, wind direction, wind speed, and vegetative fuel on the spreading rate of surface fire from the ignition points across a fuel bed, based on either field or laboratory experiments.  Nevertheless, none of those models have been implemented using real time fire data at relatively large extent areas. This study is aimed at incorporating spatially explicit time series data of weather (i.e. wind direction and wind speed), remotely sensed fuel biomass and remotely sensed fire hotspots, as well as incorporating more persistent biophysical factors (i.e. terrain), into an agent-based fire spread model, in order to identify fire ignitions within time series of remotely sensed fire hotspots.