Prakiraan Produksi Daging Ayam Ras dan Telur Ayam Ras untuk Mewujudkan Ketahanan Pangan Jawa Tengah Melalui Pemenuhan Protein Hewani Forecasting of Chicken Meat and Eggs to Realize Food Security in Central Java through Protein Adequacy from Animal Sources

Abstract

Providing quality food needs is necessary to achieve the second goal of the SDG. Analysis of production forecasts of animal protein food sources in Central Java is needed to estimate the contribution of production to protein adequacy. This research is a descriptive time series qualitative research. The time series data used are broiler meat and egg production data, and population data for the period 2008-2022 in Central Java. Population estimates are carried out using geometry, geometry, while forecasts for the production of broiler chicken meat and eggs using Moving Average (MA) and Weighted Moving Average (WMA) methods with Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicators. Broiler meat and egg production were analyzed for their contribution to the protein adequacy rate. The results showed an increase in chicken meat and egg production from 2008 to 2022, in Central Java. The best forecasting method for chicken meat and egg production is the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method. Analysis of forecasts for the production of chicken meat and eggs for three years, namely 2023-2025, shows that it will continue to increase which is related to the increase in population. The contribution of chicken meat and egg production in Central Java to the protein adequacy rate averaged 5% and 6%, respectively.