Beef Cattle Dynamic Projection Model: Forced Sell vs Capacity Expansion, Muara Enim
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18343/jipi.31.4.726Keywords:
barn capacity planning, beef cattle, cohort component method, forced sell, population projectionAbstract
This study aimed to simulate the population dynamics projection of beef cattle in smallholder farms by comparing the forced sale and capacity expansion scenarios over a 10-year period. The research was conducted through a survey involving 60 cattle farmers (30 semi-intensive and 30 intensive systems) in Gelumbang District, Muara Enim Regency. Population dynamic modeling was analyzed using the Dynamics System approach with the Cohort Component Method to project the population from 2025 to 2034. The results showed that semi-intensive farmers were oriented towards breeding for asset accumulation, while intensive farmers focused on rapid capital turnover. Projection simulations proved that the existing scenario (forced sell) led to a stagnation in business scale, where the semi-intensive population was constrained to 11 to 12 heads and the intensive to 5 to 6 heads over the 10 years (Figure 1). In contrast, implementing the capacity expansion scenario through delayed sales, capital reinvestment, and partnership schemes triggered a progressive organic population surge, reaching 151 heads in the semi-intensive system and 22 heads in the intensive system by the 10th year (Figure 2). It can be concluded that the traditional mindset of treating cattle as reactive savings is the main cause of stagnation. Population growth strategies require a sociocultural transformation through capacity planning, education, and the institutionalization of partnership systems.
Keywords: barn capacity planning, beef cattle, cohort component method, forced sell, population projection
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