Predictive Modeling of Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Related Health and Production Risks in Open-Sided Broilers
Abstract
Rapid increases in fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) can occur around open-sided poultry houses during seasonal haze in tropical regions, particularly when crop-residue burning, biomass combustion, wildfires, transboundary smoke transport, traffic emissions, and stagnant meteorological conditions coincide. However, for farm-level decision making, outdoor air quality data are rarely translated into short-term production and health risk estimates for broiler flocks. An empirical, scenario-based Monte Carlo model was developed to estimate the effects of a three-day, acute PM2.5-exposure episode in open-sided broiler houses. The model estimated indoor PM2.5 from daily outdoor PM2.5 using an indoor/outdoor infiltration ratio for naturally-ventilated housing and then linked indoor exposure to endpoint-specific modules for average daily gain, feed conversion ratio, live weight loss, hemoglobin and hematocrit change, exploratory post-vaccination immune retention, general health impairment, and respiratory pathology. Exposure-response assumptions were parameterized from peer-reviewed studies published in 2016–2026 and indexed in PubMed, Scopus, or Web of Science; controlled and longer-duration studies were used to define response direction and conservative bounds, not to infer direct three-day causality. In a moderate three-day regional haze scenario (outdoor PM2.5:150, 150, and 150 µg/m3), the median indoor PM2.5 was 135.0 µg/m3, with predicted average daily gain reduction of 5.2%, feed conversion ratio increase of 2.8%, liveweight loss of 9.4 g/bird, and 11.0% probability of respiratory pathology. In a severe three-day maize stover/biomass-burning scenario (outdoor PM2.5: 193, 400, and 611 µg/m3), the median indoor PM2.5 concentration was 361.2 µg/m3, with predicted average daily gain reduction of 19.3%, feed conversion ratio increase of 9.8%, liveweight loss of 34.2 g/bird, and 40.2% probability of respiratory pathology. These findings suggest that even short-haze events may be biologically relevant in tropical open-sided broiler systems, although external validation with paired indoor/outdoor PM2.5 and flock-health data is necessary.
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