Agri-Environmental Assessment of Land-Cover Dynamics, Ecological Pressure, and Economic–Ecological Decoupling in Konaweha Watershed

Abstract

Watershed transformation poses a challenge for maintaining agricultural production while sustaining ecological functions, particularly in tropical regions where economic activities are strongly dependent on natural resources. This study aimed to (i) analyze economic dynamics in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors of Konawe Regency; (ii) quantify land-cover change and spatial ecological pressure in the Konaweha Watershed; and (iii) assess the relationship between sectoral economic growth and ecological change using the Tapio decoupling framework. A quantitative observational approach integrated Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 imagery, Random Forest classification using Google Earth Engine, GIS-based hotspot analysis, Forest Loss Rate (FLR), Land Use Pressure Index (LPI), aggregate ecological change (ΔC), and constant-price GRDP for 2014, 2019, and 2024. The classification achieved overall accuracy above 87%. Secondary dryland forest declined by 54,712 ha, while plantations expanded by 59,205 ha (123.1%), indicating substantial land transformation toward anthropogenic production systems. The extent of ecologically functional land-cover classes declined by 16.16% during 2014–2024, with ecological-pressure hotspots concentrated in the middle and lower watershed. Sectoral GRDP increased from IDR 944.69 to 1,947.22 billion, while Tapio analysis indicated absolute decoupling across all observation periods (2014–2019, 2019–2024, and 2014–2024). The findings demonstrate persistent ecological degradation alongside economic growth and provide an integrated basis for watershed assessment, sustainable land management, and resource planning.