Perilaku Belanja Pegawai Fungsi Pendidikan dan Output Layanan: Analisis Rasio Murid-Guru SD dan SMP di Pulau Jawa Institut Pertanian Bogor
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rasio murid-guru, perilaku fiskal belanja pendidikan, SD, SMP, fixed effects panel
Abstract
Efektivitas belanja pendidikan di Indonesia masih menjadi perdebatan, mengingat alokasi anggaran yang besar belum selalu diikuti oleh peningkatan kapasitas layanan yang merata. Sejumlah penelitian terdahulu lebih banyak menyoroti capaian pada tingkat outcome makro, seperti Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, kemiskinan, atau partisipasi sekolah. Sebaliknya, indikator output layanan seperti rasio murid-guru (pupil-teacher ratio/PTR) masih jarang menjadi fokus utama. Penelitian ini menguji pengaruh perilaku fiskal terhadap PTR SD dan SMP Negeri di Pulau Jawa, menggunakan panel kabupaten/kota tahun 2018-2024. Estimasi panel fixed effects dengan lag satu periode memasukkan tiga variabel perilaku fiskal: realisasi belanja pegawai riil per kapita, under-spending, prioritas anggaran; serta kontrol struktural (demand, supply sekolah negeri, share murid swasta, kepadatan penduduk). Hasil menunjukkan dampak mekanisme fiskal yang berbeda antar jenjang. Pada SD, PTR lebih sensitif terhadap prioritisasi belanja pegawai, sementara pada SMP, PTR lebih dipengaruhi realisasi belanja pegawai riil per kapita. Secara konsisten demand menaikkan PTR sedangkan supply dan share swasta menurunkannya; sementara itu kepadatan penduduk signifikan hanya di SMP. Temuan ini menegaskan perlunya strategi fiskal yang diferensial: menjaga prioritas di SD dan memastikan efektivitas realisasi di SMP. Dengan menempatkan PTR sebagai output service delivery, studi ini memberi kontribusi empiris dan masukan kebijakan untuk penguatan kapasitas layanan pendidikan daerah.
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