ESTIMATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE USING SMALL AREA ESTIMATION MODEL BASED ON A ROTATING PANEL NATIONAL LABOR FORCE SURVEY

Abstract

In Indonesia, labor force participation data are collected by Sakernas (National Labor Force Survey). Sakernas is conducted based on a quarterly rotating panel survey. Because of the groups differ according to their time-in-panel and observation strategy, it is possible to the presence of a bias. Besides, there are insufficiency problem of sample size to obtain an adequate precision of direct estimation at the district level. It is necessary to study how to estimate parameter based on a rotating panel survey when sample size is insufficient. Currently, a small area estimation (SAE) model that accomodates the bias component due to the rotation still only assume the effect over time which follows a random walk process, so it is necessary to develop a model that is more general. We propose a SAE model for rotation group level, its combined idea of the time-series multi-level model and the Rao-Yu model. The model will applied to Sakernas data to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level.
Key words : Sakernas, rotating panel survey, time-series multi-level model and Rao-Yu model