Modeling of Cellular Automata Markov Chain for Predicting the Carrying Capacity of Ambon City
Abstract
Ambon is a city with the highest economic and population growth in Maluku Province, which makes built-up land have high and rapid growth so that it can reduce the carrying capacity of the city's land. This can lead to an imbalance between population and available housing and may result in higher population pressure on available areas. Prediction of spatial modeling is needed as a preventive measure to prevent excessive land cover changes in the future. This study aims to analyze the carrying capacity of residential areas and spatial modeling of land cover changes in Ambon City in 2010, 2015, and 2020 using Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CAMC) and identify settlement patterns based on population density in 2031 in Ambon city. The results of the Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CAMC) analysis show that the residential area in 2031 has increased to 7,910.03 ha and the development of residential areas in 2031 in Ambon City is centered on Sirimau District.
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Pratami, M., Susiloningtyas, D., & Supriatna. (2019). Modelling cellular automata for the development of settlement area Bengkulu City. {IOP} Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 311, 12073. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/311/1/012073
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Tian, G., Ma, B., Xu, X., Liu, X., Xu, L., Liu, X., Xiao, L., & Kong, L. (2016). Simulation of urban expansion and encroachment using cellular automata and multi-agent system model—A case study of Tianjin metropolitan region, China. Ecological Indicators, 70, 439–450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.06.021
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Authors
SalakoryM. and RakuasaH. (2022) “Modeling of Cellular Automata Markov Chain for Predicting the Carrying Capacity of Ambon City”, Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management). Bogor, ID, 12(2), pp. 372-387. doi: 10.29244/jpsl.12.2.372-387.
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