Performance of Exports of Primary Commodities Towards Inflation and Exchange Rate In The Pandemic Era In Indonesia: The Prebisch Singer Hypothesis Approach Sebelas Maret University

Main Article Content

Shella Elly Sritrisniawati
Evi Gravitiani


International trade plays an important role in the economic development of a country. One economic approach that focuses on commodity prices is called Raul Prebisch and Hans Singer or often the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on the weakness of the world economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the long-term and causality between exports of primary commodities in prices and to describe the pandemic conditions in accordance with this hypothesis. This study uses two methods, namely Cointegration and Granger Causality. The variables used are the value of the export volume of several primary commodities on inflation and exchange rates. In the monthly period from 2019-2021. The results show a unidirectional relationship between the value of primary commodity exports with inflation and also on the exchange rate. Long-term relationship is not in accordance with the Prebisch Singer Hypothesis. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the disruption of the level of economic activity (lockdown). As a result, the primary price level has decreased and will return to stability in the future.


Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
SritrisniawatiS. E., & Evi Gravitiani. (2021). Performance of Exports of Primary Commodities Towards Inflation and Exchange Rate In The Pandemic Era In Indonesia: The Prebisch Singer Hypothesis Approach: Sebelas Maret University. JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN, 10(2), 101-113.


Al-Yousif, K. Y. 2006. On the Role Export in the Economic Growth of Malaysia: A Multivariate Analysis. International Economic Journal. Vol. 13 No. 13

Badan Pusat Statistik. 2019. Laporan Keuangan Perekonomian Indonesia 2019. BPS Statistik Indonesia.

Badan Pusat Statistik. 2020. Laporan Keuangan Perekonomian Indonesia 2020. BPS Statistik Indonesia.

Ben Xi, Lin dan Zhang, Y. 2020. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural exports. Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2020, 19(12): 2937–2945

Bloch, H. dan Sapsford, D. 1997. Some Estimates of Prebisch and Singer Effect on the Terms of Trade between Primary Producers and Manufacturers.World Development. Vol. 25, No. 11, pp. 1873-l 884,1997

Deliarnov. 2012. Perkembangan Pemikiran Ekonomi edisi Ketiga. Jakarta: Rajawali Press.

Geronimi, Vincent dan Taranco, Armand. 2018. Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach. Resources Policy

Gujarati, D.N. dan Porter, D.C. 2009. Basic Econometric. Fifth Edition. New York: The McGraw-Hill

Harvey, D.I., Kellard, N.M., Madsen, J.B., Wohar, M.E. 2010. The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics 92, 367-377.

Kim, T., S. Pfaffenzeller, A. Rayner, and P. Newbold. 2003. Testing for Linear Trend, with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices. Journal of Time Series Analysis 24 (2003), 539–551.

Nurjaka dan Oman, Asep. 2003. Intisari Ekonomi. Bandung: Pustaka Setia.

Salvatore, Dominick. 2013. International Economics 11th Edition. United States of America: Fordham University

Sapsford, D. 1985. The Prebisch-Singer Terms of Trade Hypotesis Some New Evidence. USA: International Monetary Ftind Washington, DC 20431

Singer, H., 1950, The distribution of gains between investing and borrowing countries, American Economic Review 40, Pand Proceedings, May, 473-485.

Spinola, Danilo. 2020. Uneven development and the balance of payment constrained model: Term of Trade, Economic Cycle, and Productivity Catching-Up. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 54. 220-232.

Svedberg, Peter dan Tilton, John E. 2011. Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. Resources Policy 36 (2011) 91–93

Todaro, M.P. dan Smith, S.C. 2015. Economic Development 12th Edition. The George Washington University.
Winkelried, Diego. 2018. Unit roots, flexible trends, and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Journal of Development Economics 132 (2018) 1–17