Tambunan, Mangara, Indonesia

• Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 2 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles
  

  The main objective of this study is to analyze the structural change pattern and source of growth in the West Java economy 1993-2003 period.  The analysis was using econometric, IO (input-ouput) and SAM (social accounting matrix) approach.  The results of this study are: (1) economic structural transformation are drawn by declining of agriculture share both in output and employment, and household income distribution in this province are not equal, and (2) source of output growth are dominated by domestic final demand and export, while employment growth are dominated by labour intensity and technical coefficient.  The implication of this study is maintain industrialization policy through ADLI and export promotion industry strategy.

   

  Key words: structural change pattern and source of growth
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• Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 2 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles
  

  The purposes of this research were, (1) to analyze fiscal policy impact on food security performance and (2) to determine strategic policy on food security in North Sumatera Province.  Model of fiscal policy in North Sumatera Province which was built with the dynamic simultaneous equations system and used 2SLS with SYSLIN and SIMNLIN procedures.  In this study we also used pooled data in 1990-2007 period.  The results of this study showed that (1) factors of  fiscal performance in North Sumatera, i.e. local tax and tax sharing were influenced by local GDP positively, otherwise general alocation funds and local retribution were not  influenced by local GDP; (2) during fiscal policy, food security performance increased, which was interpreted with increasing on live expectation age, decreasing infant mortality number, and malnutrition number; (3) in simulation section, decreasing of illiteracy and health expenditure gave better impact on food security and also increasing local GDP than other simulation.  Fiscal policy, especially in health and education sector, will stimulate quality social life in the future.

   

  Key words: local fiscal policy, food security, simultaneous equations

  
  Abstract  PDF
• Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 32 No. 2 (2009): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles
  

  The research objectives are to analyze impact of human capital investment on income distribution and poverty incidence using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) Model.  The model is combined with beta distribution function and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke.  The human capital investment is approached by government expenditure for education and health.  The simulation result shows that human capital investment is able to increase economic growth and household income.  Income distribution especially in rural area becomes more equal which is shown by the beta distribution move to the right side of poverty line.  Poverty incidence, poverty gap and poverty severity also decrease except for non-labor household group in the urban area.  Human capital investment gives more benefit to household in rural area than those in urban area especially for farm-laborer and agriculture entrepreneur household group in the rural area.

   

  Key words: CGE model, Foster-Greer-Thorbecke, beta distribution function, human capital investment, poverty line

  
  Abstract  PDF
• Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 3 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles
  

  The objectives of this research were analyzing the performance of agricultural  sector and agroindustry, relation between fiscal policy and performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry; analyzing fiscal policy instruments which were effective in influencing the agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance, and relation between agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance within fiscal condition of Indonesia. Data time series 1970.1 – 2005.5 were analyzed with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).  Research results showed that decrease in the performance of agriculture sector occurred in all aspects and its role in the economy, and the same phenomena occurred also in agroindustry.  Instruments of fiscal policy which in the long term affect strongly the performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry were budgets for the following: sector of agriculture, agricultural research and development, agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization. Performance respond of agricultural sector and agroindustry toward shock  of fiscal policy instruments, to achieve stability, took relatively long period (9 and 8 years respectively). Performance respond of agroindustry toward shock of agricultural sector, to achieve stability, took 6 years period.  Instruments of fiscal policy which were in the long term effective in improving  agricultural sector performance were value added tax, agriculture subsidy, budget for agriculture research and development, budget for agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization.  Instruments of fiscal policy which were in the long term effective in improving the performance of agroindustry were income tax, value added tax, budget for agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization.  Performance of agricultural sector which had roles in affecting the variability of agroindustry performance were GDP of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products.

  Key words:  fiscal policy, agricultural sector, agroindustry
  Abstract  PDF