Siregar, Hermanto, Indonesia

  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 35 No. 1 (2012): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles
    The Impact of Government Policy of Presidential Instruction in 2005-2008 for Rice Policy on Food Security)
    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 1 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    This study is aim to analyze the expost (2001-2004) and exante (2007-2010) impacts of industrial relation issues on Indonesian economy in the era of regional autonomy.  To reach this objective, a simultaneous equations model containing 34 stuctural equations  and 18  identity  equations is  constructed.  Time  series   1980-2004 data was used in this study and model was estimated by 2SLS Method, SYSLIN Procedure.  Historical and forcasting simulation used the SIMNLIN Procedure.  Estimated parameters of the model suggest that an increase of minimum wage policy, emergence of labour union and strike cases affect significantly on investment, agregate supply, unemployment and inflation.  Results of the simulations analysis indicate that solving industrial relation issues is potential to increase investment and agregate supply as well as to decrease unemployment and inflation in 2007-2010.

     

    Key words: industrial relation issues, economy, regional autonomy


    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 2 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    The objectives of this research are: (1) To analyze labor structural transformation in West Java Province, (2) To analyze linkage intersector on labor structure transformation process interfarm, industry and other sectors, (3) To analyze impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth and labor structure transformation in West Java Province.  In order to answer the above, a simultaneous equation model was established, consisting of 32 structural equations and 15 identity equations.  Furthermore, this research used data pooling where data were analyzed with descriptive analysis, econometrics model, as well as predictions using a variety of policy scenario alternatives.  Model was then estimated by 2SLS method with SYSLIN procedures, while prediction simulation was performed by using SIMNLIN procedures.  In its development era, West Java province have done transformation structure of labor.  During this labor structure transformation process, the decrease on agricultural sector contribution was not automatically followed by increase in labor contribution in industrial sector since it was absorbed by other sectors such as the informal ones.  The increase in local taxes receipt gave a positive impact on output growth, but it had a negative impact on agriculture labor, and it had lead to labor structure transformation.  The result also showed that an increase in personel current expenditure and regional income from DAU gave a positive impact on agriculture output growth and it had not lead to labor  structure transformation.  Next, the increase development expenditure for agriculture gave a positive impact on output growth agriculture, but it had a negative impact on total output growth and it had not lead to labor structure transformation.  Expenditure for infrastructure had a positive impact on output growth, and it had lead to labor structure transformation.

     

    Key words: fiscal decentralization policy, economic growth, labor structure transformation, simultaneous equation model


    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 2 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    The main objective of this study is to analyze the structural change pattern and source of growth in the West Java economy 1993-2003 period.  The analysis was using econometric, IO (input-ouput) and SAM (social accounting matrix) approach.  The results of this study are: (1) economic structural transformation are drawn by declining of agriculture share both in output and employment, and household income distribution in this province are not equal, and (2) source of output growth are dominated by domestic final demand and export, while employment growth are dominated by labour intensity and technical coefficient.  The implication of this study is maintain industrialization policy through ADLI and export promotion industry strategy.

     

    Key words: structural change pattern and source of growth
    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 3 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    Shoes industry is an important sector which contributes significantly to the national and local government’s revenue and advantages to the local community to reduce unemployment and poverty.  The objective of this research is to analyze local economic development of sustainable shoes industry, especially the environmental impact at Bogor.  This research uses appraisal for local economic development for shoes industry analysis (ALEDIA), modification from Rapid Assessment for Local Economic Development (RALED).  The result shows that the sustainability index of shoes industry at Bogor is bad/unsustainable (34.84).  Its sustainability includes economy, ecology, social, institution, technology and policy aspects.  Based on the strategic policy implementation, the sustainability index of shoes industry at Bogor is good/sustainable (55.82).

     

    Key words: local economic development, sustainable development
    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 4 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    Gender and food security are highly correlated.  The specific aims this study are (1) to analyze working time allocation based on gender, (2) to examine the income contribution of women to family income, and (3) to evaluate factors affecting food security at household level.  The phenomena of gender inequality and the high rate of malnutrition cases in the District of South Konawe indicate the persistent of food insecurity problems in household level.  Descriptive-qualitative analysis was employed to examine the first two objectives, while econometric approach was used to analyze the last.  Due to the dependent variable has biner characteristic, logit model was employed, and since the cumulative distribution of dependent variables was nonlinear, maximum likelihood was employed to estimate the parameter.  The results of this study were : (1) gender working time allocation shows different pattern between man and women, while women working time allocations was focused on domestic activities, man working time allocation was concentrated on farming activities, (2) women contribute more income  from non-farm activities compared to man did, and (3) factors considered to affect the food security at farmer’s household level were family size, gender based income of non farm activities, and on-farm income.

     

    Key words: gender, food security, logit model, maximum likelihood estimation, income


    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 32 No. 3 (2009): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    The economic crisis in 1997 has caused the rupiah exchange rate to depreciate from about Rp 2,500/US dollar to Rp 15,000/US dollar in the time of crisis and to around Rp 9,300/US dollar recently.  This condition caused the authority to focus their policy in stabilizing rupiah  and reducing inflation rate.  The objectives of this research are firstly, to analyze the response of the variables of industrial production index (IPI), money supply and interest rate when the shocks to exchange rate and inflation take place; secondly, to analyze the contributions of  IPI, inflation rate, money supply and interest rate differentiation in explaining the variation of exchange rate and inflation rate of Indonesia; and thirdly, to formulate the monetary policy of implication stabilizing the rupiah and inflation rate.  The results show that the shock to the rupiah exchange rate has resulted in a very high depreciation responded by an increase in money supply and price but IPI decreases.  To reduce depreciation, authority can increase the interest rate. Meanwhile the shock to inflation are responded directly by increases in Bank Indonesia certificate rate so that the money supply decreases, exchange rate appreciates, and IPI decreases.  To stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and the inflation rate, monetary authority should carry out the tight money policy through a relatively high interest rate, so capital inflow will take place.

     

    Key words: monetary policy, rupiah exchange rate, inflation rate, industrial production index, vector autoregressive
    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 1 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    Transmigration program has been done for many years. However, many transmigration sites are identified as underdeveloped, especially in upland farm transmigration site laboured with food crops. The main constraint for such development relates with the limit of upland resource in supporting plant growth. The upland resources is generally marginal in physical properties (undulating, wavy and hilly topography); the poor quality in land clearing which cause removal upper layer and loss of organic matter; relatively high rainfall intensity which causes the high erosivity. Such degradation has caused accumulation of problem for farmer. This research in erosion is done in order to know the strategy needed to be done. This research is done in Rantau Pandan SP 1 as case study. Several methods have been applied to determine 1) the amount of erosions 2) the permissible erosion, 3) the spatial pattern of erosion,and 4) the soil conservation action.

     

    Key words: upland farming system, erosion, conservation
    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 2 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    Migration is a natural process to distribute labor surplus in origin regions to destination regions having a high level of labor demand, but in recent years migration causes labor surplus and unemployment in the destination region.  The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of migration on labor market behavior and to evaluate the impact of internal migration policy on labor market behavior in Indonesia.  To reach this objective, a simultaneous equation model containing 15 structural equations and 5 identities equations are constructed.  The analysis use time series 1985-2006 data.  Model was estimated by 2SLS method and simulation was used the Newton method.  The results of this research indicated that migration influence labor supply in Jawa, Kalimantan and other island.  Factors that influence labor demand in Java are amount of industry and government development expenditure, but in Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and other island influenced by total investment, government development expenditure and lag labor demand.  The impact of internal migration policy on labor market by way of increasing minimum wage can not solve labor market problem because the policy cause increase unemployment in each island.  The impact of increasing minimum wage and government development expenditure can solve labor market problem through decreasing unemployment, although average wage in each island is increasing.  The policy can also solve distribution of population by way of decreasing migration to Jawa.

     

    Key words: internal migration, labor market


    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 3 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    The objectives of this research were analyzing the performance of agricultural  sector and agroindustry, relation between fiscal policy and performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry; analyzing fiscal policy instruments which were effective in influencing the agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance, and relation between agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance within fiscal condition of Indonesia. Data time series 1970.1 – 2005.5 were analyzed with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).  Research results showed that decrease in the performance of agriculture sector occurred in all aspects and its role in the economy, and the same phenomena occurred also in agroindustry.  Instruments of fiscal policy which in the long term affect strongly the performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry were budgets for the following: sector of agriculture, agricultural research and development, agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization. Performance respond of agricultural sector and agroindustry toward shock  of fiscal policy instruments, to achieve stability, took relatively long period (9 and 8 years respectively). Performance respond of agroindustry toward shock of agricultural sector, to achieve stability, took 6 years period.  Instruments of fiscal policy which were in the long term effective in improving  agricultural sector performance were value added tax, agriculture subsidy, budget for agriculture research and development, budget for agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization.  Instruments of fiscal policy which were in the long term effective in improving the performance of agroindustry were income tax, value added tax, budget for agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization.  Performance of agricultural sector which had roles in affecting the variability of agroindustry performance were GDP of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products.

    Key words:  fiscal policy, agricultural sector, agroindustry
    Abstract  PDF
  • Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 4 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana - Articles

    The implementation of fiscal decentralization in accordance with Law No 32/2004 regarding local government and No. 33/2004 regarding inter-government fiscal relationship was considered as the new era management and local government budget.  The objectives of this study were (1) to identify factors affecting regional fiscal, regional economy, poverty ond food security and (2) to evaluate impact of fiscal decentralization policy on poverty and food security in West Java.  The descriptive analysis and dynamic simultaneous equation models were used in this study, using pooled time series data of 1995-2005 and cross section data of 13 kabupatens estimated using the 2SLS method.  The result of the study showed that the DAU was the source of 68% of regional income.The routine expenditures were the largest regional expenditures (77%).  The policy of increasing agricultural development expenditures and wages affect poverty alleviation and increase food security in West Java.

     

    Key words: fiscal decentralization, economics growth, poverty allevation, food security


    Abstract  PDF