Distribution of Fusarium Wilt in Banana Plants: An Epidemiological Study Based on Land Unit Modeling in Malang Regency

Abstract

Fusarium wilt caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (Foc) is a destructive soil-borne disease threatening banana production in Indonesia, particularly in Malang Regency, East Java. This study aimed to determine the occurrence and spatial distribution of Foc and assess disease dynamics in relation to environmental factors using spatial analysis and epidemiological modeling. Field surveys and laboratory analyses were conducted from October 2024 to January 2025 in six sub-districts of Malang Regency. Foc isolates were obtained from symptomatic banana plants and identified through macroscopic and microscopic observations and pathogenicity tests. Spatial distribution was analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based land unit modeling integrating land use, slope, soil type, and rainfall data. Disease development was evaluated using the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model. The results confirmed Fusarium wilt occurrence, characterized by leaf chlorosis, vascular discoloration, and fungal structures typical of Foc. Disease intensity varied among locations, with the highest severity recorded in Tajinan and Pakis sub-districts (score = 2), while the overall mean disease intensity was 0.83. Spatial analysis indicated that areas with gentle slopes, typic dystrudepts soils, and moderate-to-high rainfall were more prone to disease occurrence. Epidemiological simulations showed that the infected population peaked around day 40, whereas the recovered population increased to approximately 900 plants by day 80. Among the 32 banana cultivars evaluated, Cavendish was the most susceptible, whereas BRS Platina showed higher resistance. Integrating spatial environmental analysis and SIR modeling provides a practical approach for predicting disease distribution and supporting sustainable Fusarium wilt management in banana production.