PRODUK EKSPOR PROSPEKTIF INDONESIA KE PERU DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU ALIRAN PERDAGANGANNYA KE KAWASAN AMERIKA SELATAN

Dewi Setyawati, Rina Oktaviani, Tanti Novianti

Abstract

Peru in South America area has potential market for Indonesia’s products and has been established as prospective market. This study is aimed to analyze the performance of bilateral trading between Indonesia and Peru, to analyze the export products prospective for Indonesia-Peru bilateral trading and also the factors affecting its trade flow to South America. The analysis methods used in this research were Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Intra Industry Trade (IIT) and gravity model. Gravity model used panel data with modification sample cross section data of South America countries (Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Chili, Ecuador, Colombia, Paraguay, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela) from 2000-2013 time series. The result showed that trade balance as indicator of performance in bilateral trading Indonesia-Peru have been increasing. Indonesia’s export product prospective to Peru are HS 4001 (Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc), HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts), HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre, not put for retail sale), and HS 4420 (Wood marquetry & inlaid wood; caskets & cases or cutlery of wood). Only HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale) and HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts) have weak integration. The gravity model with Fixed Effect Model showed that different GDP per capita and trade/GDP have significant positive effect on value export of product prospective. Tariff have significant negative effect for HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts), HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale) dan HS 4420 (Wood marquetry & inlaid wood; caskets & cases or cutlery of wood). Economic distances have significant negative effect exclude HS 4001 (Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc). Real exchange rate have significant possitive only for HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale), while the others product have not significant effect.

Keywords : Indonesia-Peru-South America Trading, RCA, EPD, IIT, Gravity model

References

Austria, M.S. 2004. The Pattern of Intra-ASEAN Trade in the Priority Goods Sectors. Final Main Report 3/006e: 1-176.

Direktorat Kerjasama Perdagangan Internasional Kemendag. 2012. Laporan Bulanan Juli 2012. Jakarta

Ekananda, M. 2004. Analisis Pengaruh Volatilitas Nilai Tukar pada Ekspor Komoditi Manufaktur di Indonesia Penerapan Estimasi dengan Menggunakan Distribusi Lag Poissons pada Persamaan Non Linier Seemingly Unrelated Regression. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Bank Indonesia. September 2004 : 197- 235.

Estherhuizen, D. 2006. Measuring and Analyzing Competitiveness in the Agribusiness Sector: Methodological and Analytical Framework. University of Pretoria.

Grimwade, N. 2000. Intra Industry Trade and Specialization. Chapter 3 in International Trade New Pattern of Trade, Production and Investment. 2nd edition. TJ International Ltd. Great Britain

Kementerian Perdagangan. Statistik Perdagangan Desember 2013. Kementerian Perdagangan RI. Jakarta.

Kementerian Perdagangan. Laporan Kinerja Menteri Perdagangan RI Tahun 2012. Pushaka (c) 2013. Jakarta.

Kementerian Pertanian. 2013. Penandatanganan MoU Bidang Pertanian Antara Pemerintah Indonesia dan Peru http://pusatkln.setjen.pertanian.go .id [diakses tanggal 22 Desember 2014].

Portocarrero, H.E.R. 2013. Banyak yang Bisa Ditawarkan Indonesia [ulasan]. Majalah Direktorat Jenderal Amerika dan Eropa Kementrian Luar Negeri RI, Peluang 2 (2013) : 10-12. Jakarta.

Rahman MM. 2009. Australia’s Global Trade Potential: evidence from the gravity model analysis. Oxford Business & Economics Conference Program. ISBN : 978-0-9742114-1-9. Oxford University. United Kingdom

Sanborn CA Yong A. 2013. Peru’s Economic Boom and the Asian Connection. Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars. Washington DC.

Shepherd B. 2013. The Gravity Model of International Trade : A User Guide. ARTNeT Gravity Model Initiative. ESCAP-United Nations. Thailand.

Sohn CH. 2005. Does The Gravity Model Explain South Korea’s Trade Flows? The Japanese Economic Review. 56 (4) : 417- 430.

Tenreyro S. 2007. On the Trade Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility. Journal of Development Economics. Vol 82 (2): 485-508.

Zarzoso IM Lehmann FN. 2003. Augmented Gravity Model : An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows. Journal of Applied Economics. 6 (2): 291-316. Gottingen University. Germany

Authors

Dewi Setyawati
jekp@apps.ipb.ac.id (Primary Contact)
Rina Oktaviani
Tanti Novianti
SetyawatiD., OktavianiR., & NoviantiT. (2014). PRODUK EKSPOR PROSPEKTIF INDONESIA KE PERU DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU ALIRAN PERDAGANGANNYA KE KAWASAN AMERIKA SELATAN. JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN, 3(2), 158-176. https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.3.2.2014.158-176

Article Details