JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp <div id="journalDescription"> <p><br><img src="/public/site/images/adminjekp/3.jpg" alt="" width="180" height="221" align="left"><strong>Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan</strong>&nbsp;</p> <p align="justify"><br>Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan (JEKP) adalah jurnal yang berisi artikel yang mencakup hasil penelitian, analisis kebijakan, dan pendapat terkait ekonomi yang saat ini berkembang baik secara nasional maupun internasional. JEKP diterbitkan dua kali setiap tahun, yaitu periode Juli dan Desember. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan telah terdaftar di Google Cendekia, Neliti, Garuda, Euro pub, Pangkalan dan Indeks PKP</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>ISSN P :&nbsp;<a href="http://u.lipi.go.id/1325082642" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1979-5149</a></p> <p>ISSN E :&nbsp;<a href="http://issn.lipi.go.id/issn.cgi?daftar&amp;1566981770&amp;1&amp;&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2686-2514</a></p> </div> IPB University en-US JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN 1979-5149 <p>The authors who publis article(s) in Jurnal Ekonomi and Kebijakan Pembangunan have to understand and agree that the copyright of article published is owned by Jurnal ekonomi and Kebijakan pembangunan including to reproduce, distribute and sell this journal to public.</p> Respon Return Pasar Modal Indonesia terhadap Kebijakan Moneter Domestik dan Asing http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/22918 <p><em>Understanding the impact of external shocks on the stock market return and volatility is crucial for market participants as volatility is synonymous with risk. This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the spillover effects of the change of monetary policies from inside country and foreign origins on Indonesia stock market in the period of the time from November 2, 2012 to May 15, 2017. Used symmetric (IGARCH) and asymmetric (EGARCH and APARCH) GARCH model analysis to evaluate the impact of surprise and anticipated changes of monetary policies from inside country and foreign policies (from another ASEAN countries and leading economies, in this paper are United States, Europe, and United Kingdom). Surprise change of monetary policy is proxied by one day change in 3 months interbank offered rate, while anticipated change of monetary policy is proxied by one day change in target interest rate or policy rate. The result shows that information of the monetary policy news and Indonesia stock return is asymmetric. Indonesia stock market is only affected by foreign monetary policies.</em></p><p> </p><p><em><strong>Keywords</strong>: ASEAN stock market, GARCH, Monetary policy </em></p><p><em><strong>JEL classification</strong>: C01, C50, E50</em></p> Aulia Yulianti Wulandari Noer Azam Achsani Lukytawati Anggraeni Copyright (c) 2018 JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN 2018-08-21 2018-08-21 7 1 1 20 10.29244/jekp.7.1.1-20 Analisis Pengembangan Ekspor Cengkeh Indonesia http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/22920 <p><em>Exports are an important component of the economy. The higher export performance, the greater positive impact on the economy. From 2012 to 2016, Indonesia's exports continue to decline, so Indonesia needs to boost its exports again. One of the potential commodities developed is cloves. This study analyzes the development of Indonesian clove exports by finding out the competitiveness of cloves, as well as factors affecting its exports. The methods used are RCA, EPD, X-Model, and Gravity. The results of the analysis found that an optimistic market developed is Pakistan, Germany, Italy and United State of America. Potential markets to be developed are Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, France and Netherlands markets. Factors affecting Indonesian clove exports are GDP per capita, export price, economic distance and tariff. </em></p><p><em><strong>Keywords:</strong> Clove, EPD, Export, Gravity Model, RCA </em></p><p><em><strong>JEL Classification:</strong> C23, F10, F13</em></p> Ely Nurhayati Sri Hartoyo Sri Mulatsih Copyright (c) 2018 JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN 2018-08-21 2018-08-21 7 1 21 42 10.29244/jekp.7.1.21-42 Analisis Kinerja Perdagangan Indonesia ke Negara Potensial Benua Afrika http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/22922 <p><em>Trade liberalization generates higher commodity export opportunities between countries. The export opportunities to the African countries are evidenced by the high average growth of the total export values from Indonesia to Africa in 2011-2016, amounting to 5.886%. The aim of this research is to determine the potential importing African countries through the identification of export value and share, evaluate the performance and trade integration between Indonesia and the African countries through RCA, EPD and IIT methods. The results showed that South Africa with commodities like HS 71, 15, 40, 87 and 84 and Egypt with HS 15, 55, 40, 48 and 84, could be potential export destinations for Indonesia in 2011-2016. The Indonesian HS 71, 15 and 40 commodities in South Africa and Egypt i.e. HS 15, 55, 40, and 48, face tremendous competitivity. The potential Indonesian commodities in the South African market with HS codes of 15, 84, and 87 were considered as Falling Star while HS 71 and 40 were in retreating position. The HS 15 and 55 in the Egyptian market were in the position of Falling Star, with HS 40, 48, and 84 in the Retreat position. In South Africa, the HS commodities 71, 15, 40 and HS 87 were weakly integrated while the HS 50 had a strong integration.</em></p><p> </p><p><em><strong>Keywords:</strong> African, RCA, EPD, IIT </em></p><p><em><strong>JEL classification:</strong> C23, F10, F13</em></p> Ade Ayu Fleury Amalina Tanti Novianti Alla Asmara Copyright (c) 2018 JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN 2018-08-21 2018-08-21 7 1 43 59 10.29244/jekp.7.1.43-59 Causality Analysis of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Indonesia http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/22923 <p><em>This study aims to investigate the relationship between PPI inflation and CPI inflation in Indonesia both in general and for each group of commodity, and to identify whether PPI inflation can be a leading indicator for CPI inflation or vice versa. This study employs Granger causality based on VAR model for monthly data series from January 2010 until August 2016. The results show that there are unidirectional relationship between PPI inflation and CPI inflation generally, bidirectional relationship from PPI inflation to CPI inflation for foodstuffs group, unidirectional from CPI inflation to PPI inflation for clothing group, and no causality between PPI inflation and CPI inflation for processed food, beverage, cigarette, and tobacco group.</em></p><p><em><br /></em></p><p><em><strong>Keywords:</strong> Granger causality, producer price index, consumer price index, VAR </em></p><p><em><strong>JEL classification:</strong> E31, C22</em></p> Debby Anggraeni Tony Irawan Copyright (c) 2018 JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN 2018-08-21 2018-08-21 7 1 60 77 10.29244/jekp.7.1.60-77 Identification of Premature Deindustrialization and Its Acceleration in Indonesia (Period 1986-2015) http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/22924 <p><em>The increase of the manufacturing's share in GDP has reached its peak in the early 2000s while the growth rate of the manufacturing employment is relatively low. Both facts demonstrate that the process of industrialization has slowed down and an indication of deindustrialization in Indonesia. Deindustrialization that occurs in the countries with low GDP per capita is called premature deindustrialization. This study measures the rate of deindustrialization and identification of premature deindustrialization on period 1986- 2015. The result shows that the speed of deindustrialization varies between indicators and between islands. Descriptive analysis showed indication of premature deindustrialization in Indonesia. </em></p><p><em><strong>Keywords:</strong> Deindustrialization, Premature deindustrialization, Manufacturing, Indonesia </em></p><p><em><strong>JEL classification:</strong> L16, L50, L52, L60, O14, O25</em></p> Vina Eka Andriyani Tony Irawan Copyright (c) 2018 JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN 2018-08-21 2018-08-21 7 1 78 101 10.29244/jekp.7.1.78-101