Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran di Indonesia: Aplikasi Hukum Okun

Reinhard Januar Simaremare, Henny Reinhardt

Abstract


Economic Arthur Okun told that there is high cost of national output to unemployment rate. This negative relation between output and unemployment concept, known as Okun's Law. The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of economics growth to unemployment rate ini Indonesia. Also, how the effect of economic critis in 1997 to unemployment rate. The Ordinary Least Square Method (OLS) was used in this study, using polled time series data of 1985-2005. Chow breakpoint test also used to analyze the effect of economic crisis to unemployment rate.

The result of the study show that the Okun's Law valid in Indonesia, which Okun's coefficient results is negative. Hypothesis test result shows that economic growth does not effect to the unemployment rate. Unemployment rate always increasing parallels economic growth every year. Growth of labor force and last year unemployment, have positive effect to unemploymet rate. The fast increasing growth of labor force every year becomes government's heavy duty to provide jobs. Jobs offer can not decrease unemployment amount and unemployment rate. Chow breackpoint test gives the result that economic crisis 1997 did not effected unemployment rate. Unemployment rate trend increased since long before from 1985-1996 and also 1997-2005. Agriculture and informal sector thought can hold the increases of unemployment rate.