Vol 31, No 2 (2008)

Forum Pascasarjana

Table of Contents

Articles

Forum Pascasarjana
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Tri Wiji Nurani, John Haluan, Sudirman Saad, Ernani Lubis
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Ahmad Yousuf Kurniawan, Sri Hartoyo, Yusman Syaukat
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Tekat Dwi Cahyono, Zahrial Coto, Fauzi Febrianto
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Migration is a natural process to distribute labor surplus in origin regions to destination regions having a high level of labor demand, but in recent years migration causes labor surplus and unemployment in the destination region.  The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of migration on labor market behavior and to evaluate the impact of internal migration policy on labor market behavior in Indonesia.  To reach this objective, a simultaneous equation model containing 15 structural equations and 5 identities equations are constructed.  The analysis use time series 1985-2006 data.  Model was estimated by 2SLS method and simulation was used the Newton method.  The results of this research indicated that migration influence labor supply in Jawa, Kalimantan and other island.  Factors that influence labor demand in Java are amount of industry and government development expenditure, but in Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and other island influenced by total investment, government development expenditure and lag labor demand.  The impact of internal migration policy on labor market by way of increasing minimum wage can not solve labor market problem because the policy cause increase unemployment in each island.  The impact of increasing minimum wage and government development expenditure can solve labor market problem through decreasing unemployment, although average wage in each island is increasing.  The policy can also solve distribution of population by way of decreasing migration to Jawa.

 

Key words: internal migration, labor market

Safrida ., Bonar M. Sinaga, Hermanto Siregar, Harianto .
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The paper describes about rainfall zoning and rainfall prediction modeling and its use for rice availability and vulnerability analysis.  The study used rainfall data from Station Baros (Banten region), Station Karawang and Station Kasomalang Subang (Northern Coastal of West-Java), and Station Tarogong (Garut).  Fuzzy clustering methods, that was applied for rainfall zoning, used the representative data for El-Nino, La-Nina and normal means condition during 1980-2006 periods.  Neural network analysis technique was applied for rainfall prediction modeling.  Training set of the model based on the rainfall data of 1990-2002 periods, and validation model based on data of 2003-2006 periods.  The model were used to predict the rainfall of 2007-2008 periods.  The distibution of equivalence value between rainfall stations was very variative under El-Nino, La-Nina and Normal condition.  On the certain of equivalence level it could be derivated some different rainfall zone under El-Nino, La-Nina and normal condition.  Model training set could explain 88% of Baros rainfall variability, 89% of Karawang rainfall variability, and 72% of Kasomalang rainfall variability.  At Baros, Karawang and Subang, rainfall was predicted to be increased on November 2007-February 2008 period, and to be decreased on the March-June 2008, and to be increased on July-November 2008.  The rainfall decreasing on the March-June would carry a losses of rice production up to 25%.  But, applying the well irrigation management and suitable growing periods could decrease and mitigate the decreasing of paddy production.

 

Key words: rainfall prediction model, fuzzy clustering, neural network analysis, rice vulnerability
Aris Pramudia, Yonny Koesmaryono, Irsal Las, Tania June, I Wayan Astika, Eleonora Runtunuwu
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M.R.R. Lukie Trianawati, Maggy T. Suhartono, Dahrul Syah, Ekowati Chasanah
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Forum Pascasarjana
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