Vol 32, No 3 (2009)

Forum Pascasarjana

Table of Contents

Articles

Admin pasca
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The economic crisis in 1997 has caused the rupiah exchange rate to depreciate from about Rp 2,500/US dollar to Rp 15,000/US dollar in the time of crisis and to around Rp 9,300/US dollar recently.  This condition caused the authority to focus their policy in stabilizing rupiah  and reducing inflation rate.  The objectives of this research are firstly, to analyze the response of the variables of industrial production index (IPI), money supply and interest rate when the shocks to exchange rate and inflation take place; secondly, to analyze the contributions of  IPI, inflation rate, money supply and interest rate differentiation in explaining the variation of exchange rate and inflation rate of Indonesia; and thirdly, to formulate the monetary policy of implication stabilizing the rupiah and inflation rate.  The results show that the shock to the rupiah exchange rate has resulted in a very high depreciation responded by an increase in money supply and price but IPI decreases.  To reduce depreciation, authority can increase the interest rate. Meanwhile the shock to inflation are responded directly by increases in Bank Indonesia certificate rate so that the money supply decreases, exchange rate appreciates, and IPI decreases.  To stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and the inflation rate, monetary authority should carry out the tight money policy through a relatively high interest rate, so capital inflow will take place.

 

Key words: monetary policy, rupiah exchange rate, inflation rate, industrial production index, vector autoregressive
M. Ilham Riyadh, Rina Oktaviani, Hermanto Siregar
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The research analyzed rainfall data from Subang and Karawang as the centers of rice production in West Java.  The objectives of this research were to   (1) develop monthly rainfall prediction model for predicting the next four months rainfall, (2) develop a next three months rice yield prediction model and (3) estimate the availability of rice in Subang and Karawang as a function of monthly rainfall.  Both rainfall and rice yield prediction models were built by ANN technique.  ANN rainfall prediction model was applied at six rainfall stations in Subang and Karawang which are Cigadung, Karawang, Rawamerta, Subang, Sindanglaya and Ciseuti.  It was developed by including 7-8 variables (X) at input layer and 6-10 nodes at a single hidden layer.  Variables at input layer are month code (t) as X1, monthly rainfall values at t, t+1, t+2, and t+3 as X2, X3, X4, and X5 respectively, SOI at t as X6 and SST anomalies at t and t+3 as X7 and X8.  Rice yield model was built to estimate the rice production at t+3 by using four variables at input layer which are t, t+1, t +2 and t+3 as X1, X2, X3 and X4 and also included 6-8 nodes at hidden layer.  The results of this research found that the ANN model could accurately predict the monthly rainfall in all stations with the R2 values ranged from 64-96%, and maximum errors of each month rainfall ranged from 0.4-3.4 mm/month.  Rainfall model predicted that there were trends of Above Normal (AN) rainfall at Karawang and Rawamerta stations in dry season, while at four stations in Subang region would experience Below Normal (BN) rainfall in dry season.  Based on 2009 rainfall prediction, the rice yield model predicted highest rice production to happen during February and March 2009 at values of 299.294 ton and 329.082 ton.

 

Key words: artificial neural network, rainfall prediction, rice production
Magfira Syarifuddin, Yonny Koesmaryono, Aris Pramudia
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The effort to the economy growth of developing countries is directed to create an integrated zone that will motivate export, invite investors, and be a catalyst of a continuous growing and developing region.  This research is to design agroestat as an integrated agricultural zone under one management based on local specific competitive horticulture with regional development approach.  The research of agroestat is holistic covering the whole value-chain (farming, industry, and trading) of the regional, national, and international process agriculture.  Agroestat make use of a complex and complicated inter-dependency and inter-relation of multidimensional (social, culture, and economy) among sectors (agriculture, industry, and commerce).  Therefore, this research applied, soft, system methodology to design conceptual model of agroestat (soft system) and decision support system (hard system).  The study of agroestat benchmarks to three models of newly specific developed integrated region that is Perkebunan Inti Rakyat (PIR), agropolitan, and ecoindustrial park model.  The conceptual model of agroestate, consist of five individual elements which are infrastructure, district, business, funding, and management.  As a whole it describes the agroestate model.  Regionalization of agroestate is using objective and subjective approach into three (agriculture, industry, and commerce) economic zone on fair free trade competition and decentralization of government policy.  Agroestat in the smallest autonomous area of Kabupaten/Kota applying the integrity concept, needs supports of local government in indirect-subsidies (infrastructure) and regulation (spatial order).  Agroestate needs an independent, professional, commercial institution to manage agroestate.  The validation of Agroestat DSS (decision support system) has been done in Kabupaten Brebes with shallot as local competitive horticulture commodity.

Key words: agroestat, agricultural region, agriculture, shallot

Handojo Kristyanto, Syamsul Maarif, Eriyatno ., Sutrisno ., Nastiti Siswi Indrasti, Tajuddin Bantacut
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Femi Hadidjah Elly, Bonar M. Sinaga, Sri Utami Kuntjoro, Nunung Kusnadi
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Food is the basic need of every people that has to be fulfilled in order to create stable food security.  The different population growth can differ the food requirement that has to be fulfilled by self production.  Thus, this also differ food agricultural land size requirement.  The general objective of this research was to analyze food agricultural land size requirement in fulfilling food requirement of population in West Lampung District.  This research was conducted by using retrospective design and secondary data which then analyzed descriptively.  The research used some data, they were: (1) demography data year 2001-2007 from Central Bureau of Statistics,  (2) food balance sheet data year 2007 from Food Security Board of West Lampung District, (3) food consumption data year 2007 from Agriculture and Food Security Office of Lampung Province, (4) production data, productivity data, and plant index year 2002-2007 from Crops and Horticulture Office of West Lampung District, and 5) land potential of food agricultural development year 2004 from National Survey and Mapping Coordination Board. The result of the research indicates that rice requirement in West Lampung District until year 2012 can be fulfilled by production with land size utilized for rice planting in 2007.  In other hand, to reach ideal cassava production, it needs 489 hectare land size increasing with land productivity 20,22 ton/ha, per capita consumption 41,33 kg/year and population growth 1,683% per year.

 

Keywords: food requirement, agricultural land size requirement, staple food

Sumarlin ., Yayuk F. Baliwati, Ernan Rustiadi, Wafda .
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